Panmure Liberum: Netherlands will win first Fifa World Cup
Investment bank Panmure Liberum has predicted the Netherlands will win their first World Cup this summer having correctly forecast the previous three winners.
In a note published on Thursday, author Joachim Klement said that the Netherlands under Ronald Koeman will lift the iconic gold trophy in New Jersey this summer. He correctly predicted Germany to win in Brazil, France to win in Russia and Argentina to triumph in Qatar.
Panmure Liberum uses modelling based on GDP per capita, population size, temperature and whether the team is a host country or not for its group stage calculations.
“Using these variables, I can explain some 55 per cent of the variation in success across nations in a World Cup. But this means that some 45 per cent of the outcome is determined by luck,” author Klement, head of strategy at the investment bank, wrote in his tongue and cheek note.
“Thus, my model includes an element of chance when determining the outcome of matches between any two teams. Yes, a team can have a high chance of winning against another team, but upsets happen, and my model takes these effects into account.”
Netherlands triumph?
Klement notes that Brazil will lose in the World Cup round of 32 while England will lose to Portugal in the semi-finals. It would leave a final between Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal and the Netherlands.
“To be honest,” Klement added, “neither of these teams features typically among the conventional favourites to win. Current Polymarket predictions put Portugal’s chances of winning the trophy at 7 per cent and the Netherlands’ at 3 per cent.”
The investment bank states that during a World Cup, the US stock market underperforms by 3.9 per cent compared to normal periods, with markets in countries that win a match outperforming the following day.
Spain are favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, ahead of England, France and Brazil.
Reigning champions Argentina are 8/1 alongside Brazil, ahead of Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands and Norway.