The Eurozone is at risk of renewed crisis in 2019 – and this time it’s all about Italy January 29, 2019 After a dismal 2018, December brought further bad news for the Eurozone in the form of the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator. Despite hopes that last year would see an escape from the ongoing repercussions of the 2011-2013 euro crisis, confidence across sectors has taken a hit, with only retail trade remaining a bright spot. [...]
ECB Headwinds, IMF downgrade for Europe – What Can We Expect from 2019? January 25, 2019 | City Talk This week bankers and leaders around the globe have come together for the World Economic Forum in Davos. A key topic has been what we can expect from 2019 and beyond, in the face of a global slowdown, climate change, the US shutdown, trade wars and Brexit. On top of that, the ECB revealed that [...]
The Franco-German push for EU integration may backfire January 24, 2019 Amid the turmoil of the Brexit process, it is perhaps understandable that British eyes have not been focused much on recent developments within the European Union. After all, nobody is particularly interested in changes in a club when their membership is about to lapse. But just as we are preparing to set the seal on our [...]
Despite apocalyptic Brexit warnings, the good news keeps on coming January 22, 2019 As the twists and turns of this long drawn-out Brexit drama continue, possibly the most surprising aspect of all is just how resilient the good news about UK business continues to be. I know this is tempting fate, I know many experts keep saying that the economic cycle suggests we should have had a recession [...]
Will this be a year for investors to fear? January 9, 2019 A new year always offers the chance of a reset, of evolved thoughts, ideas and insights. Even though many will be pleased to see the back of 2018, numerous investors are beginning this year with new concerns: an oncoming recession. This fear seems suddenly rampant among many of my colleagues in the industry. But these fears [...]
What’s in store for equities in 2019? January 7, 2019 | City Talk There does not appear to be a lot of cheer for markets as 2019 begins. Risk appetite is strained, and havens are bid with some soft data from China and a rare profits warning from Apple combining to spook equity investors. Volatility came back with a vengeance in 2018 as a turn in the US [...]
Forex 2019: Dollar rally to fade? January 7, 2019 | City Talk The course of 2018 saw a firming in the US dollar against just about every other currency. But the factors that contributed to this steady rise may be starting to diminish. The big question facing the FX markets this year is whether the dollar can continue to push higher or whether the softening in December [...]
Eurozone inflation falls to its lowest rate in eight months as business output crashes January 4, 2019 A fall in oil prices saw eurozone inflation crash to an eight-month low in December as business activity fell to a four-year low, it emerged today. Inflation for the 19-country area stood at 1.6 per cent in the last month of 2018, down from 1.9 per cent in November and the lowest recorded since April, [...]
Eurozone bank lending rate quickens despite growth concerns January 3, 2019 Bank lending to eurozone households and companies accelerated in November despite signs the bloc’s economy is slowing, the European Central Bank said. Corporate loans grew four per cent year-on-year in November, compared with 3.9 per cent the previous month and loans to households grew to 3.3 per cent from 3.2 per cent in October – [...]
Euro at 20: Time for ‘close and candid introspection’ rather than celebration January 1, 2019 The 20th anniversary of the euro should not be cause for celebration but for “close and candid” introspection. European Central Bank president Mario Draghi admitted he was a biased observer when proclaiming the euro had been a success ahead of its 20th birthday yesterday. But he stopped short of celebrating and said the anniversary was [...]