Friday 25 June 2021 3:36 pm

Goldman Sachs analysts: England will beat Germany in Wembley showdown and progress to final

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that England will beat Germany in their crunch Euro 2020 last-16 match at Wembley on Tuesday.

After sneaking into the second round following a 2-2 draw against Hungary on Wednesday night, Germany will face England for a place in the quarter-finals.

The Germans will be hoping for a repeat of their famous victory over England in the semi-final of Euro 96, but Goldman Sachs’ analysts do not see it happening.

“Our model thinks that this time will be an English victory, and England will go on to progress to the final,” Goldman analyst Christian Schnittker said.

The investment bank has predicted a 2-1 victory for England over Germany in the hotly anticipated clash, despite the Three Lions having not beaten their rivals in a major tournament since 1966.

We know what happened then.

Is football coming home?

Football is not coming home this year, according to Goldman’s model, which forecasts a triumph for Belgium.

Goldman predicts that England will beat Sweden in the quarter-finals and the Netherlands in the last four, before losing 2-1 to Belgium in the final.

Goldman’s analysts modelled the number of goals that each team would score by using data going back to 1980.

They found that the number of goals scored by each side can be explained by the strength of their squad, as measured by the World Football Elo Ratings.

“It is difficult to assess how much faith one should have in these predictions,” Goldman analysts admitted in a note.

“The forecasts are highly uncertain, even with sophisticated statistical techniques, simply because football is quite an unpredictable game.

“This is, of course, precisely why football is so exciting to watch.”