Who should be in Gareth Southgate’s England Euro 2020 squad this summer?
That is the debate that is sure to rage before Southgate names his 26-man squad for the European Championship on Tuesday 25 May at 1pm – and will probably rumble on long afterwards.
For a purely objective assessment, we asked Carteret Analytics to compile a list using quantitative analysis techniques borrowed from investment banking.
The squad has been selected on the basis of Carteret Rating, a data-driven measurement of each player’s contribution to their club winning matches.
The below was compiled and written by Molly Crawford, Jack Morris, Matthew Belford and James Powell of Carteret Analytics and edited by City A.M.
A form-based England Euro 2020 squad: the headlines
Southgate has long preached the benefits of picking players based on form, but if he were to do so his England Euro 2020 squad might surprise a few people.
In would come Jesse Lingard, James Maddison, Emile Smith Rowe, Patrick Bamford, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Nat Phillips.
Among those missing out would be Trent Alexander-Arnold, Eric Dier, Reece James, Kieran Trippier, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham and Ben Chilwell.
Manchester United’s Dean Henderson is the most in-form English goalkeeper, with the highest Carteret Rating of 184.5.
Henderson has a save percentage of 76.6 per cent, superior to Jordan Pickford (72.1 per cent) and Alex McCarthy (64 per cent), the next highest-rated keepers.
Southgate’s preferred goalkeeper, Everton’s Pickford, has a Carteret Rating of 168.5, 9.5 per cent lower than Henderson.
Southampton stopper McCarthy, whose solitary England cap came in 2018, has a Carteret Rating of 168.2.
Burnley’s Pope, a regular squad selection under Southgate, is the fourth most in-form English goalkeeper with a Carteret Rating of 147.2.
Manchester City’s John Stones is the current standout English defender, with a Carteret Rating of 265.0.
That is a significant 17.3 per cent higher than the second best, Manchester United’s Harry Maguire (226.0).
Despite being only a back-up player for Liverpool, Nat Phillips (Carteret Rating 209.4) has excelled enough since being thrust into first-team action to warrant an England call-up.
Phillips has completed 125 key passes in the Premier League this season, a figure beaten only by Maguire (179) and Everton’s Michael Keane (147).
The data analysis has Tottenham’s Eric Dier only fractionally behind Phillips, however, and is more likely to be picked when experience is taken into account.
Manchester United’s Aaron Wan-Bissaka is the leading English right-back, with a Carteret Rating of 211.6.
Wan-Bissaka has performed 88 successful tackles in the league this season, more than double the tally of team-mate Luke Shaw, whose total of 42 tackles is the next best for an English defender.
Analysis indicates that the performance levels of Chelsea’s Reece James and Kieran Trippier of Atletico Madrid are not currently high enough to justify a place in the England squad for Euro 2020.
Midfielders and Wingers
Jesse Lingard is not only the highest rated English midfielder but also the most in-form English player in any position, with a Carteret Rating of 302.2.
Lingard, on loan at West Ham from Manchester United, has scored nine goals and provide three assists in 14 Premier League games this season.
Marcus Rashford has scored 11 league goals for Manchester United this season, and provided nine assists – a figure beaten only by Jack Grealish’s 10.
West Ham’s Declan Rice (Carteret Rating 208.4) has underlined his defensive qualities by making 59 interceptions this season. James Ward-Prowse has made 40
Borussia Dortmund’s Jadon Sancho has a Carteret Rating of 221.5, and has played 50 key short passes, second only to Grealish (72 key short passes).
Uncapped Arsenal midfielder Emile Smith Rowe (Carteret Rating 205.5) has a passing accuracy of 89 per cent, the highest of any of the selected midfielders.
Sancho’s team-mate Jude Bellingham and Smith Rowe’s colleague Bukayo Saka are not performing at the level of the 11 highest rated midfielders, according to the data analysis.
Saka, however, has improved significantly this season, with his Carteret Rating increasing by 41.7 per cent from 134.8 in 2019-20 to 191.1 for this campaign.
With a Carteret Rating of 238.8, the numbers suggest that Liverpool’s Jordan Henderson is worthy of a place in Southgate’s squad – if fit. However, since he has not played since February due to injury he has been omitted here.
England captain Harry Kane is the most in-form English centre forward, with an impressive
Carteret Rating of 283.7 – 29.4 per cent higher than his closest competitor Dominic
Calvert-Lewin (Carteret Rating 219.3).
Everton’s Calvert-Lewin has the best aerial ability, winning 52.6 per cent of his headed challenges but has not provided any assists in the Premier League this season.
Southampton’s Danny Ings, another of Southgate’s options, is not currently playing at the same level as the top four centre forwards, with a Carteret Rating of 207.1.
Carteret Analytics is part of the Carteret Group of companies, based in the City of London, New York and Geneva, and provides leading-edge quantitative analysis and commercial analytics to clients worldwide, with particular expertise in the sports sector. Note: This analysis was undertaken before the final round of Premier League fixtures.