The rise of the ABLOC (anyone-but-Labour-or-Conservative) vote
The rise of the anyone-but-Labour-or-Conservative vote is turning the UK into a six-party state, writes James Reed in today’s Notebook
Traditionally, what were our two main parties – Labour and the Tories – have commanded between them around 80 per cent of the vote.
As recently as 2019, the Tory vote stood at 44 per cent, the party’s highest share since 1979, when Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister.
In his pomp in 1997, Tony Blair won over 43 per cent of the vote.
But today, both parties are having to contend with the rise of what’s being called the ‘ABLOC’ voter – meaning they’ll vote anyone but Labour or Conservative.
According to one latest poll that put Reform in the lead and the Tories in fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats, Labour is on 22 per cent and the Tories 16 per cent – a combined vote share of less than half of what we are used to seeing.
By any measure, this is a dramatic collapse for our leading political brands and a massive opportunity for the challengers. Reform is doing massive damage to both the Tories and Labour. Whether it can sustain its polling position remains to be seen – and those getting carried away with the prospect of a Reform government should remember the SDP polled as high as 50 per cent for an extended period in the 1980s. Reform seems a long way from a credible platform. Economists have warned of an “immediate and violent” sterling crisis if Nigel Farage takes power and follows through on plans to take millions of workers out of income tax, cut corporation tax and reduce NHS waiting lists to zero, thanks to an £80bn funding black hole.
The Lib Dems command less media attention (though why that should be the case when they have 72 MPs compared to Reform’s five is unclear), but have become the party of great swathes of Middle England, an effective vessel for voter disillusionment with Trump and Brexit and are peeling voters away from Labour’s left.
As well as Reform and the Lib Dems, the Greens have five MPs and are a significant force in local government and the SNP remains strong in Scotland – meaning the UK is effectively now a six-party state. Another coalition government looks increasingly likely, and who governs in the future could lie in the hands of those ABLOC voters.
A firsthand look at NHS wastage
An elderly relative recently went for a cancer operation at the Royal Marsden Hospital, which lasted a couple of hours and was expertly done with the very latest technology. Afterwards, she needed to be transferred to the Brompton which is across the road. To take her there, the NHS organised an ambulance. When the ambulance crew arrived, they asked if that was really as far as they were supposed to be taking her. She was shocked to discover that they had been told to drive all the way from Oxford to London to do the job. As she told them, she would have been quite happy being pushed across the road in a wheelchair. The NHS has many virtues, but this incident suggests a lack of efficiency and control of costs that would concern any business.
A blow to Harvard
As a Harvard Business School graduate, I’ve taken a close interest in the university’s clash with the Trump administration. It is taking legal action against Trump over his decision to bar the school’s ability to enrol international students, branding it unconstitutional retaliation for defying the White House’s political demands. The administration accuses Harvard of creating an unsafe campus environment by allowing “anti-American, pro-terrorist agitators” on its premises and of coordinating with the Chinese Communist Party. As things stand, the current situation will have an immediate and devastating effect on Harvard and its 7,000 international students.
1536 is a five-star play
I went to see the play 1536, set in the year of Anne Boleyn’s execution, at the Almeida Theatre in Islington. It features three young women who hear the news that the Queen has been put in the Tower. The story develops in a compelling and disturbing way, and the three leads – Siena Kelly, Liv Hill and Tanya Reynolds (who was an ambassador for my charity Big Give’s Arts for Impact campaign, which raised £2.7m for arts charities earlier this year) are all outstanding. Five stars from me.
Where to eat in north London
While we were in north London, we had dinner at Ottolenghi Islington and greatly enjoyed the creative Mediterranean dishes. The food is full of colour and spices. By day, it’s a deli and does really good cakes which are temptingly displayed. If you haven’t been, it’s well worth checking out.
James Reed is CEO and chairman of Reed