What does value investing have in common with Forrest Gump? August 26, 2020 | City Talk Gump is rewarded for his determination and resilience in the face of vicious storms in the 1994 film “Forrest Gump”. We believe returns could be bountiful for the genuinely long-term and patient value investor too. When I look at a chart like this, I think one of two things. Either it’s different this time for [...]
Wall Street hits new highs again after US-China trade deal talks August 25, 2020 US markets continued their record run this evening, once again closing at new highs after the US and China reaffirmed their commitment to President Donald Trump’s much-touted trade deal. Although the gains were more modest than yesterday, the benchmark S&P 500 closed up 0.4 per cent at 3,443 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq punched up [...]
Wall Street hits fresh highs as bull run continues apace August 24, 2020 Wall Street once again closed at record highs this evening as stocks soared on optimism over a potential new treatment for the coronavirus disease. Having last week reclaimed February’s pre-pandemic highs, neither the benchmark S&P 500 nor the Nasdaq showed any signs of slowing down, as the fastest ever recovery from a bear market continued [...]
What the data tells us about the shape of the US economic recovery August 7, 2020 | City Talk Looking at high-frequency data in the US, the key question is whether momentum in consumer spending can be sustained. Some signs of the much hoped-for V-shaped recovery have started to emerge for the US economy. While consumption collapsed in March and April due to lockdown measures and a jump in unemployment, stimulus cheques provided an [...]
Could the bounce-back be quashed by a second wave? August 4, 2020 | City Talk With some countries fearing a second wave of Covid-19 cases, Schroders’ chief economist Keith Wade considers whether a bounce back in the economy could be quashed. While there are hopes that the easing of lockdowns and reopening of businesses are beginning to give life to the global economy, fears of second waves of infections are [...]
Move over, US: time for a new stock market leader? July 1, 2020 | City Talk The US has dominated stock market returns globally ever since the Global Financial Crisis. But nothing lasts forever… Dominance in almost any walk of life goes in cycles. Just ask Manchester United fans or MySpace users… Well, the same can be said of markets. They also go through periods when certain regions (or companies) seem [...]
Big tech vs the market: what you need to know June 23, 2020 | City Talk Big tech has led the global market recovery in the wake of Covid-19. Can the dominance of the FAMAGs continue? On 8 June the S&P 500 of US stocks recovered all their Covid-19 losses for 2020. The so-called FAMAGs (Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet (Google’s parent company)) led that recovery. Even before the pandemic, [...]
Which stock markets look ‘cheap’ after the rapid rebound? June 19, 2020 | City Talk We look at how five regional markets stack up on various valuation measures. Early last week, the short answer as to which markets looked cheap was: none. Despite everything that 2020 has thrown at it, at one stage the US stock market was up for the year overall. Other markets had also regained a lot [...]
Johanna Kyrklund: Is retail investor surge cause for caution? June 15, 2020 | City Talk With a combination of resurgent markets, seemingly ebullient retail investors and a bleak economic outlook, it may be prudent to tread carefully. It’s an old investment cliché that when your taxi driver starts giving you share tips, it’s time to sell. As someone who has been on the receiving end of cabbie investment advice during [...]
Q&A: Why do markets rise even when the outlook is bleak? June 9, 2020 | City Talk The global economy is on track for its worst recession in nearly 100 years, yet April was the market’s best monthly performance in three decades and the S&P 500 has just turned positive for 2020. Why? The first quarter of 2020 has been tough for the global economy in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. [...]