What the data tells us about the shape of the US economic recovery August 7, 2020 | City Talk Looking at high-frequency data in the US, the key question is whether momentum in consumer spending can be sustained. Some signs of the much hoped-for V-shaped recovery have started to emerge for the US economy. While consumption collapsed in March and April due to lockdown measures and a jump in unemployment, stimulus cheques provided an [...]
Could the bounce-back be quashed by a second wave? August 4, 2020 | City Talk With some countries fearing a second wave of Covid-19 cases, Schroders’ chief economist Keith Wade considers whether a bounce back in the economy could be quashed. While there are hopes that the easing of lockdowns and reopening of businesses are beginning to give life to the global economy, fears of second waves of infections are [...]
Move over, US: time for a new stock market leader? July 1, 2020 | City Talk The US has dominated stock market returns globally ever since the Global Financial Crisis. But nothing lasts forever… Dominance in almost any walk of life goes in cycles. Just ask Manchester United fans or MySpace users… Well, the same can be said of markets. They also go through periods when certain regions (or companies) seem [...]
Big tech vs the market: what you need to know June 23, 2020 | City Talk Big tech has led the global market recovery in the wake of Covid-19. Can the dominance of the FAMAGs continue? On 8 June the S&P 500 of US stocks recovered all their Covid-19 losses for 2020. The so-called FAMAGs (Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet (Google’s parent company)) led that recovery. Even before the pandemic, [...]
Which stock markets look ‘cheap’ after the rapid rebound? June 19, 2020 | City Talk We look at how five regional markets stack up on various valuation measures. Early last week, the short answer as to which markets looked cheap was: none. Despite everything that 2020 has thrown at it, at one stage the US stock market was up for the year overall. Other markets had also regained a lot [...]
Johanna Kyrklund: Is retail investor surge cause for caution? June 15, 2020 | City Talk With a combination of resurgent markets, seemingly ebullient retail investors and a bleak economic outlook, it may be prudent to tread carefully. It’s an old investment cliché that when your taxi driver starts giving you share tips, it’s time to sell. As someone who has been on the receiving end of cabbie investment advice during [...]
Q&A: Why do markets rise even when the outlook is bleak? June 9, 2020 | City Talk The global economy is on track for its worst recession in nearly 100 years, yet April was the market’s best monthly performance in three decades and the S&P 500 has just turned positive for 2020. Why? The first quarter of 2020 has been tough for the global economy in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. [...]
Slumping economy, surging stock market– what’s going on? May 18, 2020 | City Talk While tens of millions of Americans were losing their jobs, the stock market in April produced its best monthly return in over 30 years. We look at what’s behind this apparent disconnect. 36 million Americans filed for unemployment claims over the past eight weeks. US GDP plunged by 4.8 per cent in the first quarter [...]
Covid-19: why the tech giants have emerged as winners May 12, 2020 | City Talk While many businesses struggle to survive under the global lockdown, the largest technology companies remain afloat and in some cases are even thriving. Microsoft has reported a surge in usage of its cloud computing service Azure, as millions of people work from home. Amazon is hiring an additional 75,000 workers, on top of the 100,000 [...]
US airline stocks buffeted by Warren’s surprise sell-off May 4, 2020 US airline stocks have dropped sharply today as markets reacted to veteran trader Warren Buffett’s decision to sell all of his firm’s stakes in the US’ four main carriers. At the end of last year, Berkshire Hathaway held considerable positions in the four, including 11 per cent of Delta, 10 per cent of American Airlines, [...]