Is this market losing its marbles? July 4, 2019 | City Talk The chart that caught the eye of the Schroders Multi-Asset Investment team this month shows that the relationship between the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the S&P 500 index has broken down. The PMI is based on a survey of purchasing managers from more than 300 manufacturing firms. It is a widely followed [...]
Following heavyweight champ Andy Ruiz Jr’s lead towards punchy portfolios July 2, 2019 | City Talk Until the start of this month, if you had shown someone a photograph of Andy Ruiz Jr and asked what sport he did professionally, there is a fair chance they would have guessed ‘darts’. We are fervently hoping Ruiz does not take that line amiss because, of course, the correct answer is ‘boxing’ and, on [...]
Is the financials sector priced for disruption? June 26, 2019 | City Talk We think all industries are likely to be vulnerable to disruption in the coming years. We’ve seen it already in retail and media, for example, and this is likely to be a growing theme in markets for the long term. Financials, and banks in particular, are currently facing disruption to their business models. We can [...]
Brexit three years on: markets and the economy in six charts June 24, 2019 | City Talk On 23 June 2016, the UK public voted on whether or not to stay in the European Union (EU). Many expected the UK to remain in the EU, but by a majority of 52% to 48% the Leave campaign won. The UK was scheduled to leave the EU at 23:00 UK time on 29 March [...]
The instinctive biases investors must beware – Part 2: Cognitive errors June 20, 2019 | City Talk Behavioural science – and its financial offshoot, behavioural economics – have over the years proved fertile ground for articles. As such, we thought it would be useful to corral the key behavioural biases investors need to be alert against into one handy checklist – albeit one handy checklist divided neatly into two halves. That is [...]
Why the world economy is like a wobbly bike June 14, 2019 | City Talk Three months ago we said “the easing in US-China trade tensions, more flexible central banks and the benefits of lower oil prices should stabilise activity later this year and support an upgrade in our global growth forecast for 2020”. However, two of those supports have now fallen away and we are more reliant on looser [...]
Can Amazon really be a climate change champion? June 12, 2019 | City Talk Amazon is not a company normally associated with meaningful strides towards a low carbon future. Although e-commerce is typically better for the environment than heavily air-conditioned, high street stores, speedy deliveries carry a high carbon cost. Any Amazon shopper may feel a pang of guilt – as I have – at using the one day delivery [...]
‘Return of the CDO’ – how scary could that sequel prove? June 3, 2019 | City Talk CDOs 2 (complete, of course, with the tagline ‘Just when you thought it was safe to go back into collateral debt obligations’) is unlikely to have filmgoers queuing round the block – and yet ‘Overconfident group reckon they can do better than previous set of unfortunates in the face of all warnings and evidence to [...]
Aberdeen Standard opposes Non-Standard Finance’s hostile Provident Financial takeover June 2, 2019 A major shareholder in Provident Financial has come out to publicly oppose rival doorstep lender Non-Standard Finance’s (NSF) hostile takeover bid. Aberdeen Standard Investments, which owns 3.1 per cent of the sub-prime lender, said it would not accept NSF’s offer. Read more: Watchdog probes Non-Standard Finance's hostile takeover of Provident Head of UK equities Andrew [...]
Three reasons why the UK stock market looks compelling May 31, 2019 | City Talk Whatever the opposite of a sweet spot is, many investors think UK equities are currently in one. With Brexit still unresolved, some have put the market in the “too difficult” basket. While it is understandable to fear uncertainty, as stock pickers we embrace the mis-priced opportunities created by it. The global nature of the market [...]