As the crunch point nears, could Greek default prove to be a geopolitical disaster for Europe? June 16, 2015 Famke Krumbmüller, a Europe analyst at Eurasia Group, says Yes If a default prompted Greece’s withdrawal from the euro, and the new arrangement were managed badly, it could have harmful consequences for the rest of Europe. Most importantly, it would send negative signals about the future of Eurozone integration – the monetary union was never [...]
Why we need to expand Gatwick airport and make Heathrow better – not bigger June 16, 2015 The choice over where to build the additional airport capacity London needs will be one of the major challenges facing the next London Mayor. I have no doubt that our economy needs more aviation capacity, but after much thought, I have decided that I cannot support a third runway at Heathrow. The damage it would [...]
Hysterical Keynesians need to ditch the hyperbole if they don’t want to be ignored June 15, 2015 History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. On Friday, 79 economists wrote to the Guardian condemning George Osborne’s plans to run budget surpluses “in good times”, claiming this would risk “a liquidity crisis that could also trigger banking problems, a fall in GDP, a crash, or all three”. Signed by well-known hydraulic Keynesians such [...]
How I will demolish the barriers slowing down London’s digital growth June 15, 2015 DIGITAL technology is changing the world, but the pace of change is still breathtaking. In three years, Airbnb amassed as many hotel rooms as the Hilton dynasty did in a century. Ten years ago, Twitter didn’t exist – now it has over 300m users. And Spotify adds over 20,000 tracks to its 30m-strong music library [...]
As its day of reckoning nears, should Greece accept that it’d be better off outside the euro? June 15, 2015 Sam Bowman, deputy director of the Adam Smith Institute, says Yes Greece could probably stay in the Eurozone if it had either substantially lower government debt or substantially higher economic growth. But its economy has shrunk by over 0.6 per cent in the past two quarters, and is expected to continue to shrink this year. [...]
If we cap immigration, the UK will lose its status as a global hub for science and engineering June 15, 2015 John O’Keefe, the UK’s latest Nobel Prize winner, has a lot in common with Venki Ramakrishnan, the next President of the Royal Society. First, they are similarly brilliant scientists and Nobel Laureates. O’Keefe was a joint winner last year for his discovery of cells that act as our inner GPS system, enabling us to [...]
Work stress can be seriously damaging to your mental health: Here’s how to tell if it’s making you depressed June 15, 2015 You tell yourself it’s OK and that it happens to everyone, particularly in the City. There's nothing unusual about feeling stressed, particularly when things have been difficult in the office. But it isn’t OK, and work shouldn’t be making you feel down. Ideally, it should be psychologically stimulating and rewarding. Too often it is [...]
Why Turkey will be the first of the emerging market dominoes to fall June 14, 2015 Like a lion ambling out of the mists of the Serengeti in search of its first meal of the day, first-rate political risk analysts must possess the sixth sense of always looking for the weakest water buffalo. Delving beneath the happy talk and self-serving comments governments invariably put about regarding their countries’ economic prospects, they [...]
The City needs smarter regulation – not the stability of the graveyard June 14, 2015 The City of London was firmly in the spotlight last Wednesday with the speeches given by the chancellor and governor of the Bank of England at Mansion House. Aside from the government’s sale of shares in RBS and Royal Mail, behaviour – or more specifically misbehaviour – in the City was the subject that dominated [...]
With no deal on the cards, would the Eurozone be able to contain contagion from Greek exit? June 14, 2015 Dr Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, says Yes. The Eurozone won’t let the turmoil of 2011-2012 happen again. It has spent the last three years strengthening its defences against contagion risks. Systemic contagion through sovereign bond markets is now highly unlikely. Investors know that the European Central Bank is the reliable buyer of last [...]