Beneath the bonnet: Weak first quarter growth points to problems ahead April 28, 2015 Is first quarter GDP growth of just 0.3 per cent something to worry about? On the one hand, it is the slowest rate of growth since 2012. On the other, growth came in this low on four occasions even during the golden years of UK economic expansion between 1993 and 2000. To escape from this [...]
Dog day care shows why the output gap is now largely redundant April 28, 2015 I am keen on dogs. Recently, I saw an advert for a special canine toothbrush designed to get rid of the pet’s bad breath – surely a difficult challenge given what dogs get up to. Vans promoting home beauty visits for dogs have been widespread for some time now. A new service being promoted is [...]
Will the arrival of royal baby number two provide a boost to the British economy? April 28, 2015 Professor Joshua Bamfield, director of the Centre for Retail Research, says Yes While people are naturally interested in the birth of a new royal child, this is baby number two, and only about 15 per cent of those we’ve surveyed expect to mark the birth in some way. But our estimates suggest that retail spending [...]
Why would Bob Diamond want to buy a bank in Rwanda anyway? April 28, 2015 So Bob Diamond's Atlas Mara is eyeing a second bank in Rwanda. The former Barclays boss's pet project is reportedly in talks to buy a 45 per cent stake in Banque Populaire du Rwanda (BPR) – a snip at $22.m (£14.7m). That's after its acquisition of BRD Commercial Bank, another Rwandan lender it bought last [...]
UK biotech can match the US – if we end the investment valley of death April 27, 2015 The Personalised Medicine World Conference, where industry leaders in the life sciences and biotech sectors present their latest research to peers, patients and investors, took place at Oxford University earlier this month. Personalised medicine has captivated business leaders and investors globally, and the conference’s migration from its original home in Silicon Valley suggests that the [...]
Labour’s manifesto marked its final retreat in the fiscal stimulus debate April 27, 2015 Which school of economic thought has been vindicated by the macro-economic performance of the UK over the past five years? Given that economists, historians and politicians are still busy analysing the events of the 1930s and the Keynes-Hayek debate of that period, we are unlikely to get a consensus any time soon. But while Keynesians [...]
Miliband’s disappointing stamp duty pledge won’t make the tax less stupid April 27, 2015 Housing, and its affordability crisis, is a bigger issue at this election than in any other for decades. Sadly, that hasn’t translated into policies that could effectively solve the problem, and yesterday’s announcements by Labour leader Ed Miliband will not change that. Labour plans to introduce a three-year stamp duty exemption for first time buyers, [...]
As talks drag on, would calling early elections pave the way to a final agreement for Greece? April 27, 2015 Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg, says Yes It was always clear that Prime Minister Tsipras could not satisfy his party’s hardline left-wingers and international creditors at the same time. Greece needs a third bailout this summer to stay in the Eurozone in the long term. The Eurozone would offer that help, but with more [...]
General Election 2015: Cameron says he’s “bloody lively” – but does he need to be? April 27, 2015 David Cameron was in the City this morning, trying to convince small business owners he's on their side, and trying to convince the broader electorate he's passionate about what his party has to offer. The PM has been under pressure in recent days for not showing enough fire on the campaign trail, as the [...]
Neverendum revisited: The break-up of the Union is more likely than ever April 26, 2015 Like some George Romero zombie film sequel, the Scottish question simply refuses to die. As I posited in September last year, the supposedly definitive referendum vote was likely to be anything but that. Rather, Scotland’s status in the Union was more likely to morph into a “Neverendum” – a huge, unsolved, existential distraction that would [...]