What future for forecasts? It’s time economists grappled with the flaws in their models August 12, 2015 Macroeconomic forces influence truly vast sums of money, but the process of analysing them is notoriously unreliable. Economic forecasting is often very wide of the mark and seriously inaccurate just one year ahead. Traditional economic forecasting has conspicuously failed to identify turning points in the economic cycle, while the highly sophisticated DSGE (dynamic stochastic general [...]
Ignoring A-Level results is not the best way to build a truly diverse workforce August 12, 2015 Today's A-Level results are a welcome release of tension for students, as many begin to contemplate university and their career paths. But are first-rate grades and university degrees still top of the wish list for businesses? A recent poll by KPMG revealed that 80 per cent of UK adults believe that success is driven by [...]
As wage growth slows to 2.4 per cent in June, is the UK economy now a cause for concern? August 12, 2015 Calum Bennie is a savings expert at Scottish Friendly, says Yes While this moderate wage growth seems like good news for a steady as she goes economy, in reality, it suggests that the underlying situation is more fragile than we thought. In addition, the recent devaluations of the Chinese yuan have, in two fell swoops, [...]
The wheels are falling off David Cameron’s EU renegotiation: It can still be saved August 11, 2015 Are the wheels falling off the government’s EU renegotiation? It’s a legitimate question to ask given that, in the Prime Minister’s first hundred days of leading a majority Conservative government, we have already seen a significant reduction in what David Cameron appears to be asking for and what he is likely to achieve. Despite having [...]
Keynesians are wrong: Cutting public spending can boost economic growth August 11, 2015 The key aim of George Osborne’s economic policy has been to eliminate the public sector’s financial deficit. The main way he has tried to achieve this has been by squeezing public spending. The orthodox economic textbooks maintain that this withdraws demand from the economy, and so leads to the growth rate being slower than it [...]
China’s shock devaluation is more about reform than its authorities panicking August 11, 2015 In a surprise move, China weakened its currency yesterday by setting the daily fix for the RMB 1.9 per cent lower, in its most significant devaluation since 1994. This has fuelled a great deal of speculation as to the reasons for this move and the ultimate implications for the Chinese economy and the rest of [...]
As Greece agrees a bailout deal in principle with its creditors, will the agreement last? August 11, 2015 Dr Holger Schmieding is chief economist at Berenberg, says Yes Alexis Tspiras has learned the hard way that Europe is not bluffing. When he let the old bailout deal expire at the end of June, the European Central Bank stopped feeding Greece and its banks with further euros. The resulting closure of banks, with pensioners [...]
Jeremy Corbyn’s renationalisation agenda would be disastrous for consumers August 10, 2015 Labour leadership contender Jeremy Corbyn has called for a “public debate” about renationalisation, in particular of the railways but even of energy firms. As with others occupying the left wing of UK politics, his logic seems to be: “these industries were privatised, prices have gone up in these industries, ergo privatisation has caused high prices [...]
Singapore at 50: Lessons for the UK from its stunning rise August 10, 2015 Two out of every three Singaporean dollars invested in Europe come to the UK. Over 1,000 British firms and every leading UK university collaborates with the country. As Singapore turns 50, it’s worth asking how we got our relations so right. And what more can we learn from the Little Red Dot’s extraordinary rise? From [...]
Is the government right to put more pressure on firms in its crackdown on illegal migrants? August 10, 2015 Steven Woolfe, Ukip’s migration spokesman, says Yes As the wealthy countries of Europe come to grips with the great wave of human economic migration from the south, UK firms must take on added responsibilities to share the enforcement burden and make things work. There are good economic, national security, social, public service provision reasons why [...]