EU membership: The true cost to Britain’s economy – and the unrealistic assumptions you need to make the numbers net positive February 25, 2016 Many people are surprised to find that, back in the early 1970s, all the studies undertaken before we joined the then EEC pointed to a negative economic impact. This was due to direct payments to Brussels, alongside the effect of the customs union (common external tariff), which raised prices above world levels, most notably in [...]
Islamic State earnings call: Why the terrorist group’s 2014 financial boom is a distant memory – but the 2015 decline won’t be fatal February 25, 2016 In these pages 12 months ago, as companies revealed their year-end financial results and governments made their annual promises of greater things to come, I reflected on the financial reporting of a new arrival – an entity that had, during 2014, emerged from the financial shadows, and was heralded as being “…as sophisticated and well-funded as [...]
Donald Trump: After his Nevada victory, could he actually become President of the United States? February 25, 2016 Brian Darling, a former senior communications director and counsel for senator Rand Paul, says Yes. Donald Trump can become President of the United States. His performances in the Republican primaries, in combination with Hillary Clinton’s unpopularity, are a recipe for a President Trump. Although he lost in Iowa, he has shown strength by winning New Hampshire, [...]
EU referendum: The letter signed by business leaders backing David Cameron’s European Union reforms may not go down in history as a great one February 24, 2016 A wonderful book called Letters of Note has gathered together some of the most remarkable, significant, amusing and heartbreaking letters ever written. The project began as a website and amassed legions of fans on social media, whose enthusiasm drove a crowdfunding campaign to see the collection published. The book features letters from a former slave to [...]
What game theory tells us about David Cameron’s EU deal February 24, 2016 Game theory is the study of how rules and tactics affect outcomes, and it is pervasive in academic economics. The opening sentence of one of the economics courses at Cambridge pontificates: “Optimal decisions of economic agents depend on expectations of other agents’ actions”. Translated into English, this means that, for someone in a negotiating situation to [...]
EU referendum: Why protecting the pound is the jewel in the crown of Cameron’s deal February 24, 2016 Following the Prime Minister’s EU renegotiation, the debate is already raging. Myriad topics, from sovereignty to benefits, are dominating the headlines. But what shouldn’t be lost in the detail – and should be celebrated – is David Cameron’s success in protecting the pound. This, alongside related hard-won measures, has far-reaching and positive consequences for Britain’s [...]
Memo from business to politicians: Don’t let the EU referendum paralyse real governing February 24, 2016 So now it’s official. Britain’s politicians and opinion-formers will spend the next four months in hyper-drive, as they seek to convince the public of the case to leave or remain in the European Union. Many Westminster-watchers have already cleared the decks, reasoning that little else will get done while megaphone diplomacy, claims, and counter-claims dominate the [...]
Is there a future for UK oil and gas? February 24, 2016 Alison Baker, head of UK oil and gas at PwC, says Yes. Times are tough. Over-supply in the market, lower for longer oil prices and the impending transition to a low carbon world, alongside cost management and working capital issues, are hitting the UK oil and gas industry hard. But it’s not the beginning of the [...]
Millennial woes may seem over the top but Generation Y could have a point with their moaning February 23, 2016 Last week, this paper ran a story based on research which found Generation Y (born between the early 80s and the late 2000s) is more like Generation Whiny in the workplace. The research, by Workfront, found bosses perceived so-called millennials as more prone to a moan than Generation X, and bigger babies than the Baby [...]
Britain should vote for Brexit before the inevitable Eurozone meltdown February 23, 2016 Despite David Cameron’s embarrassing imitation of Oliver Twist in Brussels last week, his negotiations ended up mired in the minutiae of trivial amendments to the UK’s relationship with Europe. Small restrictions to child benefit and vague wording about exemption from a common currency and “ever closer union” are the thin gruel that our hapless Prime [...]