Putin is playing bad cards well in Syria and Ukraine – but his days are numbered February 22, 2016 Given the hustle and bustle of modern life, a primary problem for political risk analysts is that they have far too much information rather than too little. I could literally spend the whole day reading other people’s articles, and never make a dent in a day’s worth of foreign policy analysis around the world. Given [...]
HSBC’s decision to keep its HQ in London is a ringing endorsement of the whole UK February 22, 2016 HSBC has not been far from the headlines in the past few days, and we can expect more news from the global banking giant today as it publishes its Annual Results. The issue that has kept so many City figures interested in the company for the past few months has been its decision over where [...]
Britain should vote to leave the EU to take back control of our laws February 22, 2016 At a recent panel discussion at Lincoln’s Inn on whether Britain should stay in or leave the EU, Kate Hoey MP told the audience, “lawyers always have so many different opinions”. She is right: lawyers are also debating EU membership. We have formed a group, Lawyers for Britain, led by Martin Howe QC, for lawyers [...]
Are FTSE 100 chief executives right to weigh in on the Brexit debate? February 22, 2016 Sam Bowman, executive director of the Adam Smith Institute, says Yes. Brexit could have a big impact on British business – indeed, this is one of the central claims of both sides. Leave says it would mean less red tape and more freedom to trade with the rest of the world; Remain says it would make [...]
As David Cameron’s renegotiation of Britain’s membership of the EU near conclusion, it’s all about to kick off February 19, 2016 For all the late-night drama and political theatre in Brussels, the Prime Minister’s renegotiation appears to be nearing its conclusion. A deal will be presented and a referendum will follow. For those who already hold strong views on Britain’s membership of the European Union, the details of Dave’s deal will be largely irrelevant. An outer [...]
Proptech: Technology is poised to transform the UK housing market February 19, 2016 The phrase “fintech” has long since entered mainstream use, while buzzwords like adtech, edtech and medtech are becoming increasingly familiar too. Now a newish category is entering the technology startup lexicon: “proptech”. The UK’s property industry has remained stubbornly resistant to change, even as innovation reshapes entire verticals across the wider economy. Compared with, say, [...]
Is the OECD right that fiscal stimulus is required to boost growth in the global economy? February 19, 2016 Olivier Vardakoulias, an economist at the New Economics Foundation, says Yes. It is now well established that the idea of “contractionary expansion” – that cutting deficits during economic downturns enhances growth – is wrong. Recent IMF evidence suggests that additional public expenditure has a positive effect on growth, while public expenditure cuts undermine economic performance. Meanwhile, since 2008 western governments have mainly relied on monetary [...]
Donald Trump will win if “establishment” remains a dirty word among Republicans February 19, 2016 "Establishment” has become the dirtiest word you can use against your political opponents in the current US presidential cycle – the dirtiest one you can get away with on national television, at least. But the word is losing significance by the day. Six months ago, to be labelled “establishment” meant you were a mouth-piece for [...]
What kind of EU referendum voter are you? These seven groups will decide Britain’s future in Europe February 19, 2016 At least one fifth of voters is undecided on what to do in the EU referendum, according to most “in or out” polls. But as my research has found, many of those who lean one way or the other are still up for grabs. Large numbers still feel unqualified to decide and hope (even if [...]
As institutions from the EU to Opec face becoming irrelevant, could central banks be the next to encounter crisis? February 18, 2016 From the EU to Opec, institutions that have dominated the world since the Second World War are slowly becoming irrelevant. Oil producing countries would once gather in Vienna and with shameless self-interest, manage production levels under the altruistic cloak of preventing prices from tumbling or spiking. No longer. Riven by internal differences and rendered impotent by [...]