Sadiq Khan is squandering the success of the Elizabeth Line
Despite the popularity and success of the Elizabeth Line, other major transport projects in the capital are in limbo, writes James Ford
Everybody loves the Elizabeth Line, right? There are the sleek, open-plan trains, the breathtaking, well-designed stations and, perhaps best of all, there are the smooth and swift journey times that have created new routes and shorter commutes across the capital. Passenger numbers have exceeded expectations, commuter satisfaction is unrivalled and TfL’s coffers overflow with extra fare revenue. Even if you don’t live in London, you should be pleased that the project boosted the UK economy to the tune of £42bn. As we celebrate the Elizabeth Line’s third birthday this month (24 May), the capital can bask in the reflected glory that comes from seeing an ambitious dream realised.
If one Elizabeth Line is good, two must obviously be better. Given that the Lizzie Line has been such a triumph, work must surely be underway on the next big rail project. Somewhere in the capital there must be a street or park festooned with TfL construction hoardings, a neighbourhood reverberating to the cacophonous sounds of pile driving, and pavements gently trembling as a tunnel boring machine slowly snakes its way beneath the metropolis. But no matter how much you strain your ears or how well you scan the horizon, you will not find another new tube line currently under construction.
This is not because nobody has come up with a credible proposal. There are several major rail projects that have been in development for years and were included in the most recent version of the London Plan (London’s statutory spatial development strategy) published in 2021, the year before the Elizabeth Line opened. The biggest is Crossrail 2 (once known as the Chelsea-Hackney line), which is proposed to connect New Southgate and Broxbourne in the north to Epsom, Chessington and Shepperton to the south west. There are also other, smaller projects that either require much less construction, have a lower price tag or which make extensive use of existing infrastructure, such as the Bakerloo line extension to Lewisham, the DLR extension to Thamesmead and the West London Orbital rail scheme. Collectively, these four transport projects are projected to add at least 215,000 jobs and more than 260,000 new homes across London. Given the capital’s well-documented struggles to unlock both housebuilding and economic growth, the fact that firm opening dates have not been set for for any of these projects – let alone the necessary construction already underway – is pretty scandalous.
There are several major rail projects that have been in development for years. Given the capital’s well-documented struggles to unlock both housebuilding and economic growth, the fact that firm opening dates have not been set for for any of these projects – let alone the necessary construction already underway – is pretty scandalous
The origins of Crossrail 2 go back to 1901 (some 40 years before Crossrail 1 – aka the Elizabeth Line – was first conceived) and the core route beneath London has been ‘safeguarded’ since 1989. When the current proposed route was finalised in 2015 under the previous Mayor, construction was due to start by 2023 (it didn’t). TfL’s current estimates are that the DLR extension could be open by the early 2030s (if construction begins in 2028), with similar projected opening dates for the West London Orbital and Crossrail 2. The Bakerloo line extension is not expected to open until 2040 at the earliest. I don’t know about you, but I don’t find such vague and distant timetables particularly reassuring.
At three years old, the Elizabeth Line is effectively a toddler. By the time Crossrail 2 opens, it will be a teenager and, when the Bakerloo extension is finally up and running, the Elizabeth Line will be old enough to be starting university.
Why are we still waiting to break ground on these vital projects? Paradoxically, the story of the Elizabeth Line makes the case both for and against major infrastructure projects in the capital. Yes, on the one hand, it is a genuinely transformational project that has dramatically boosted capacity, improved journey times, increased fare revenue and driven significant regeneration and housebuilding at surface level. But, on the other hand, the Elizabeth Line’s long and tortured journey from conception to completion also serves as a warning to the two key stakeholders that will have to fund future transport projects: HM Treasury and London businesses.
The Eizabeth Line was nearly four years late in opening and £4.3bn over budget. As the project was partly funded through the Business Rate Supplement (BRS) – a levy on business rates paid by larger London firms (those with a rateable value over £75,000) – it means that businesses will now have to pay more in BRS than originally intended to fund this major cost overrun. In 2025/26, the BRS is expected to cost the capital’s firms £252m, with the total cost of the BRS to businesses over its lifetime projected to be £8.1bn by 2041 (when the GLA is expected to have paid down its Elizabeth Line debts). Business will have provided 40 per cent of the total cost of building the Elizabeth, with the remaining 60 per cent split between fare income and funding from central government.
Worse still, despite being barely three years old the Elizabeth Line has been bedevilled by a succession of operational problems. In its first two years of operation, the Lizzie Line suffered more than 100 days of delays, service reductions or closures, with some lasting for several days at a time. In 2023-2024, one in five Elizabeth Line trains were delayed and almost five per cent were cancelled – nearly double the previous year. According to an analysis of data from the Office of Rail and Road, at one point in the summer of 2024 it had the highest number of cancellations of any train line in the country, prompting The Londoner to ask: “how did the Elizabeth Line go from TfL’s golden boy to its problem child?”
Sadiq Khan’s threadbare transport legacy
To make the case for further investment in transport infrastructure in London, it is not going to be enough to merely focus on the myriad successes of the Elizabeth Line. City Hall must also acknowledge and address the mistakes made in bringing the scheme to life and the challenges it has experienced since opening. London firms in particular will want reassurances that future projects will be better managed and that financial liability for going over budget will lie with TfL and City Hall and not them.
On current projections, Sadiq Khan’s transport legacy is looking pretty threadbare, especially when you consider that he has already served longer at City Hall than either of his predecessors. The ULEZ is controversial to say the least and its much-trumpeted improvement in quality is contested, the Superloop bus network is little more than a re-labelling of pre-existing bus routes that has only marginally boosted overall bus ridership, and the expensive rebrand of London Overground looks like a £6.3m exercise in virtue signalling. (Afterall, new signs are a poor substitute for additional capacity or faster journey times). Is it really enough to have delivered three projects that nobody was calling for whilst strategically vital projects are stuck in limbo? The opening of the Elizabeth Line offered a political dividend in terms of public excitement and goodwill, but that dividend has been squandered thus far. Time is now running out for City Hall to seize a golden opportunity to make progress on major projects that have languished during Khan’s tenure at City Hall. James
James Ford is a public affairs consultant and former advisor on transport policy to then mayor of London Boris Johnson