Coronavirus: the economic impact March 5, 2020 The coronavirus threatens to derail the revival in global economic growth which began in the latter part of 2019. Economic indicators up to January continued to show an improvement in activity with business surveys signalling rising orders and output. However, confidence in the sustainability of the upswing has been undermined by the virus, officially known [...]
Outlook 2020: Global economy December 16, 2019 The global economy should perform better in 2020, underpinned by a US-China trade truce and lower interest rates, Schroders’ chief economist Keith Wade explains. We recently upgraded our 2020 global growth forecast to 2.6 per cent, due to prospects of a “phase one” US-China trade deal and lower US interest rates US interest rate cuts [...]
Why the world economy is like a wobbly bike June 14, 2019 Three months ago we said “the easing in US-China trade tensions, more flexible central banks and the benefits of lower oil prices should stabilise activity later this year and support an upgrade in our global growth forecast for 2020”. However, two of those supports have now fallen away and we are more reliant on looser [...]
What might trigger the next global financial crisis? September 14, 2018 Ten years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the deepening of the global financial crisis, the world seems to be a safer place. Over the past decade there have been significant shifts in the world economy such that the imbalances that could lead to a crisis are less. The risks haven’t entirely gone [...]
3 reasons why the world economy is slowing August 6, 2018 Losing momentum Although near-term activity indicators remain stable, growth has been less synchronised in 2018 than it was in 2017 when major regions were all accelerating. Asia and Europe appear to be slowing, and Friday's jobs data in the US suggests that the world economy is entering a soft patch. We see three main factors [...]
How might a trade war play out? July 19, 2018 The Trump team appears to see trade wars as a central policy rather than a bargaining strategy. With the possible advent of further tariffs on European and Chinese exports, we look at the potential consequences such as higher inflation and lower growth. The impact on interest rates and currencies While the US has begun to [...]
Why economic growth (and rates) could increase faster than expected March 8, 2018 Donald Trump’s plan to boost the US government’s spending by $300 billion has added fuel to a US and global economy already firing on all cylinders. The effect of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 which detailed these plans (which also include a further $90 billion in disaster relief spending) will be felt far beyond [...]
Why we now expect three US interest rate rises in 2017 March 8, 2017 How fast will US interest rates rise? Keith Wade, chief economist at Schroders, explains why the outlook has changed. With markets seemingly relaxed in the face of a March US rate hike, the Federal Reserve may be emboldened into more rate rises later this year. Following a speech by Fed chairman Janet Yellen last [...]
