The EU is set to suffer in the Czech Republic election January 12, 2018 This year could be a tough test for the European Union (EU). Not only does it have Brexit looming over the horizon and a stubborn unemployment, but it also faces yet more potentially destabilising elections. Much has been written on the Italian parliamentary vote in March for its potential consequences for the Euro, but the [...]
The beauty parade for the next Bank of England Governor has begun January 11, 2018 Not that long ago this column mentioned the fact that speculation over who would succeed Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England would begin in earnest this year. Just a few short weeks later and it has already begun. On Tuesday Reuters speculated as to who the possible successors to Mr Carney might [...]
Europe’s economic recovery isn’t complete yet and Brexit is distracting Brussels January 10, 2018 On Tuesday, official figures showed unemployment across the Eurozone edged lower in November. The jobless rate among the nations that make up the single currency bloc fell to 8.7% of the working population overall, down from 8.8% in October. While this isn’t in itself that impressive a decline, the year-on-year fall in unemployment tells a [...]
The global economy looks strong but confidence in Britain is weak and getting weaker January 9, 2018 Optimism among British manufacturers about the state of the global economy is at a four-year high. So says a survey from the manufacturers' organisation EEF. It found 40% of factories are planning for growth this year compared with 19% who are forecasting a decline. Sales are expected to grow at home, according to 62% of [...]
Wall Street soars ever higher, but is the Dow approaching its Icarus moment? January 8, 2018 How high can the Dow Jones go? 26,000? Or 30,000 as President Donald Trump has suggested? Why not even further? In the current heady climate it’s easy to get carried away, especially given that President Trump’s tax reforms are still to take effect. So what is driving Wall Street’s extended bull run? Behind its “Goldilocks [...]
Is the end of QE in sight? Why what the markets want may not be what they get January 5, 2018 After years of loose monetary policy, the money presses in several of the world’s biggest markets are finally winding down – if not yet falling silent. In the US, the era of easy money is already over. But with a huge $4.5 trillion of assets to return to global stock markets, it has always been [...]
Too big to list? Why the international scramble for the Aramco IPO might prove a wild goose chase January 4, 2018 Last week, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced a delay to its proposed introduction of a new listing category for the London Stock Exchange. The proposal – which has already endured a six-month consultation – is widely seen as an attempt by the regulator to bend its own rules on stock market flotations… in ways [...]
As the new year starts Britain needs some economic resolutions January 3, 2018 It’s hard to like January as a month. The start of the New Year invariably brings with it resolutions to drink less – or even nothing – for a month, do more exercise and take more care over how we spend our money. In short, we make all sorts of promises to ourselves to live [...]
Ignore the forecasts. No-one really knows what 2018 holds for markets December 21, 2017 How will markets and the global economy perform in 2018? If you’ve not yet been confronted with a barrage of forecasts or predictions, then you’re likely to be in the coming days. Trying to predict what will happen next year has become as much a part of the Christmas tradition as turkey, presents and overindulgence. [...]
Britain is in for a rough ride next year; the EU holds all the cards ahead of Brexit trade talks December 20, 2017 At times Brexit can seem like one giant wheeze invented to sell more newspapers. But even by the standards of Fleet Street’s saturation Brexit coverage, this week the press has really gone to town on the latest twist in the saga. On Monday night many newspapers got very hot under the collar after Michel Barnier, [...]
