The chart that highlights the eerie calm of the longest US bull market September 3, 2018 Last month, the US equity market set a new record for the longest bull market (period without a 20% drop) in history. There’s not much euphoria around, but in case anyone is tempted to get carried away, allow us to offer a sobering thought… Have investors forgotten what it feels like to lose money? Equity investing [...]
Why Elon Musk is far from alone with his stock market dilemma August 23, 2018 Elon Musk, the divisive entrepreneur, has recently made headlines with the following tweet. In a subsequent blog post, Musk made clear his reasons for wanting to take his electric vehicle company, Tesla, away from the stock market. He expressed his frustration at the distraction caused by wild swings in the Tesla share price and perceives [...]
World Cup special: which stock markets look ‘cheap’? July 12, 2018 As the world’s football teams have been battling out for supremacy at the World Cup, so have the major equity markets been jostling for position. In both cases, results have not gone entirely to form. While many other markets had been posting double-digit gains in the 12 months prior to the second quarter, the UK [...]
What has driven returns in different stock markets? February 8, 2018 When we look back over the past three years, investors have earned remarkably similar returns in local currency terms in very different parts of the world. UK, eurozone, Japanese and emerging market equities have all returned close to 9.5 per cent a year [1]. The US, as is well known, has been the outlier and [...]
Which of the major stockmarkets are ‘cheap’ going into 2018? December 26, 2017 Finding value in stock markets at present is like looking for the sixpence in a Christmas pudding. It’s there but it’s hard work finding it. Others round the table are likely to end up disappointed. Stock markets have been on quite a run for several years now and 2017 has failed to disappoint. Unfortunately for [...]
Does low volatility mean a shock lies in store for investors? June 14, 2017 Despite the many economic and geopolitical risks in the world today, volatility in asset markets has been remarkably subdued. The Vix index, the market’s so-called fear gauge, has recently fallen to a reading of around 10. This is exceptionally low compared to long-term norms. and only just above the all-time low of 9 that it [...]
How cheap are world stock markets? Five key tests May 30, 2017 Valuation is key to making investment decisions. Invest when markets are expensive and future returns are likely to be poor over the medium to long term. Buy when markets are cheap and the odds are stacked much more in your favour. But a word of warning – valuations are useless at predicting stock market behaviour [...]
How low rates affect stockmarket returns December 5, 2016 The world has been living with low interest rates for eight years but such periods are not new. Both the US and UK saw rates below 1% for most of the two decades spanning the Second World War, while Japan has been living with sub-1% rates since 1995. Stockmarkets performed very differently in each case, [...]
