Which stock markets look cheap? City Talk The last time I wrote an update of stock market valuations was back in January. A great deal has happened in the world since then, but from a valuations standpoint, precious little has changed. Nothing is cheap. And the markets which were most expensive in January are still the most expensive. And those which were relatively [...]
55 years of hurt: the connection between investing and football City Talk In July, the England men’s football team reached their first major final since 1966. 30 years of hurt has become 55 years of hurt. Just one of many unwelcome statistics that have dogged the national team over the years, and which they hope to soon put an end to. The earlier England-Germany match provided a [...]
Does low volatility mean a shock lies in store for investors? City Talk Despite the many viral, economic, and geopolitical risks in the world today, volatility in asset markets has fallen to remarkably subdued levels. The VIX Index, the market’s so-called fear gauge, has recently fallen to a reading of around 16. This is below the average since 1991 of 19. The VIX reflects the amount of volatility [...]
Why you shouldn’t try to time the top of the market May 12, 2021 At the end of March, the S&P 500 index of US large companies was valued at 34 times its earnings over the past 12 months. This is more expensive than at the peak of the dotcom bubble at the end of 1999, when the figure was 31 times. And it’s a long way above the [...]
The pros, cons and incentives behind the SPAC-craze sweeping markets April 14, 2021 There have been 378 initial public offerings (IPOs) in the US in the first three months of 2021. That’s more than in any full calendar year between 2003 and 2019. The $139 billion raised so far this year is more than two and a half times the yearly average over this period. They already have [...]
What 175 years of data tell us about house price affordability in the UK March 29, 2021 What we’ve learned from nearly 200 years of housing data – and is property really a better investment than a pension? We dug into the treasure trove that is the Bank of England’s Millennium of data resource to analyse the history of house prices. We found that the average house in the UK currently costs more than [...]
The truth about growth and value performance February 24, 2021 A statement I have heard many times in recent years, last year especially, is that the “value” style of investing no longer makes sense. That the very idea of buying an unfashionable stock doesn’t make sense when the new hottest stock with the most epic growth forecasts is being dangled, tantalisingly, in front of you. [...]
GameStop and the ethics of short sellers February 5, 2021 The global media has recently been entranced by a battle between retail traders and hedge funds over the US computer game store, GameStop. It has also shone a light on a practice that makes many people feel uneasy: “short selling”. So much so that lots of members of the Reddit community which spearheaded the attack [...]
Are any stock markets cheap going into 2021? January 27, 2021 Where is the value in stock markets today? This is a difficult question to wrestle with. At face value, the bad news is that everywhere looks to be at nosebleed-red levels of expensiveness. Of the 25 measures in our regular stock market valuation grid below (five markets and five measures for each), 16 are more [...]
How the 2020 global share slump and recovery ranks in history December 21, 2020 Stocks saw a record crash followed by a record rebound in 2020, creating some disparity between markets, as Duncan Lamont explains. The global stock market crashed at a record speed in early 2020 (Figure 1). On its way to a total decline of 34%, it clocked up a 30% loss in just 40 trading days. [...]
