Ireland likely to vote yes to fiscal compact
IRISH voters are set to approve the Eurozone’s fiscal compact in Thursday’s referendum, according to a range of opinion polls, although other European leaders are already pushing to change the treaty.
The compact, which seeks to impose limits on government budget deficits to reassure markets and prevent a re-run of the current sovereign debt crisis, needs to be approved by each government before they can be bound by it.
As voting began in Ireland’s most remote areas, a series of opinion polls have indicated the vote is likely to pass by a margin of three to two.
Irish politicians have successfully framed the vote around a clause in the treaty that states only those who sign up can access the Eurozone’s permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, warning of unpaid wages and empty bank machines should voters say no.
Ireland’s current bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund expires in 2013, after which it is supposed to return to funding itself via bond markets.
But with the Eurozone’s debt crisis still far from resolved, it could struggle to borrow at affordable rates even if the treaty is approved.
French leader Francois Hollande has called for the treaty to be recast, to reduce the pace of spending cuts.