Germany could face a tough draw in the Euro 2020 qualifiers after being demoted to pot two following abysmal year
With the inaugural Uefa Nations League campaign over for the majority of countries, attention this weekend turns back to the more familiar European Championship qualification process.
The Nations League has handed some countries an advantage for the Euro 2020 qualifiers, with group winners Holland and Switzerland now guaranteed to be seeded, but others have dropped down the pecking order.
Germany are one of the countries to have paid the price for a difficult spell, having finished bottom of their Nations League group just months after suffering the same fate in their World Cup group.
As a consequence of their poor results, Poland moved above them into Pot One for Sunday’s draw. Germany are in Pot Two, meaning they will have to face at least one of Europe’s elite teams.
German woes
It has been an eventful year for German football that it is hard to glean any positives from. When coach Joachim Low signed a four-year contract extension prior to the World Cup everything seemed rosy, but tension was bubbling under the surface.
The row surrounding Mesut Ozil and Ilkay Gundogan following their controversial photo opportunity with Turkish president Recep Erdogan preceded the country’s worst ever World Cup performance.
German media lambasted the duo, who are of Turkish descent, while fans booed them at matches prior to the tournament. The holders lost a must-win game to South Korea in their final group match, having already suffered defeat to Mexico and crashed out the competition.
Ozil announced his retirement from the national team in the aftermath, citing racism within the German Football Federation. “When we win I am German, when we lose I am Turkish,” he said.
Low insisted he would honour his lucrative new deal despite the slump in form, but they also failed to win any of their four Nations League games, leading to their relegation to League B.
They now face the daunting prospect of being drawn against one of the 10 countries deemed better than them by Uefa new qualification process. That number includes the two teams from their Nations League group, France and Holland, as well as England and World Cup finalists Croatia.
With only the top two teams in each qualifying group automatically getting a place at Euro 2020, Germany will be eagerly hoping for a kind draw from Pot Three and below.
They could be pitted alongside the likes of Serbia, Slovakia, or even the Republic of Ireland, now under Mick McCarthy and Robbie Keane’s guidance – a country that took four points off them during the Euro 2016 qualifiers.
But the new structure to the qualification process is also designed to ensure that the bigger footballing nations have every opportunity to qualify.
New playoff system
If they do not qualify automatically, the winners of each Nations League group will have the opportunity to do so via a playoff against each other. If they do qualify through the normal route, their space in the play-off drops down to the next best team in that league.
Germany are deemed the 11th best team in League A, with only Iceland below them. They would need at least seven of the teams ranked above them to qualify automatically in order to be eligible for a play-off spot. It’s a risk they will not want to take.
England, meanwhile, will avoid some of the best nations in the draw but could still be pitted against Germany, Russia, Wales or Iceland, who knocked them out of Euro 2016, along with the same possible opponents from Pot Three and below as the Germans.
Gareth Southgate’s improving team have guaranteed themselves a safety net if things should go wrong by winning their Nations League group, albeit that the England coach will hope it is not necessary.
While Wales are in Pot Two, Ireland, Scotland and Northern Ireland are all in Pot Three, and there is a distinct possibility of a clash between at least two of the Home Nations.
Those in Pot Three will likely face a difficult draw, but Scotland have guaranteed themselves a play-off place after winning their Nations League group. They are currently teed up to face Finland, Norway and Serbia, depending on whether those countries qualify automatically.