Analyst picks for 7 February 2012
STRATEGIST
JOHN KICKLIGHTER
My pick: Short S&P 500, long euro-Swissie, long dollar-yen
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
The prevailing risk appetite run that has guided the markets since the beginning of the year ended last week with another thrust. There are a number of appealing setups to accompany this move, but I’m too sceptical of fundamentals to take part. As such, I’ll keep the standing order for a S&P 500 trend collapse below 1,300, as well as the non-risk dependent (but intervention-favourable) dollar-yen (long dollar-yen ¥76.50) and euro-Swiss franc (long euro-Swissie from SFr1.2060) positions.
STRATEGIST
JOEL KRUGER
My pick: Buy dollar-Canadian dollar on a daily close above Ca$1.0035
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
Our constructive outlook remains, despite the interday pullback, with the market largely still consolidating around parity ahead of what we believe will be an eventual retest of the key October highs by Ca$1.0660. Look for any interday pullbacks to be very well supported above Ca$0.9900, while only a close below Ca$0.9900 would give reason for concern. A close back above Ca$1.0035 should accelerate gains. Stops should be placed on a close below Ca$0.9900 with a Ca$1.0600 objective.
STRATEGIST
ILYA SPIVAK
My pick: Short gold
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months
Gold dropped after January’s US employment report showed the economy added over 100,000 more jobs than expected, eroding demand for the yellow metal. Rising Eurozone debt crisis stress should weigh as well through boosting the dollar. Prices have now completed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at $1,763.00, warning that further losses are ahead. I will enter short from here, initially targeting $1,680.40. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above $1,763.07.