Will the Afghan leak win votes for Nigel Farage? Don’t be so sure
Nigel Farage and Reform UK have made hay out of the government’s embarrassing leak and subsequent cover-up of information concerning Afghan asylum applications. But it may not be the vote-winner he thinks, says William Atkinson
“The supreme function of statesmanship,” according to Enoch Powell, “is to provide against preventable evils’” Considering that, what should we make of the unfolding Afghan resettlement scandal? For those of us who have long since lost faith in the British state, the litany of cock-ups and cover-ups is unsurprising. But that doesn’t make the scandal any less extraordinary – or any less depressing.
There was a particular pointlessness about the war in Afghanistan – a costly 20 years of trying to impose Western liberal democracy on a country so ill-suited to it that the Taliban swept back into power as soon as the Americans left. Following their return, the British government was concerned about the safety of Afghans that we had worked with; in an act of tragicomic ineptitude, an official leaked a spreadsheet containing details of Afghan asylum applicants.
Fearful for what the Taliban might do to those named, the government scrambled to rescue thousands of Afghans who had worked with Britain. Ben Wallace, the then Defence Secretary, sought an injunction to prevent journalists from writing about the scheme, even as billions were being spent to resettle the Afghans with no public debate. Wallace claims that “if the Taliban had been alerted to the existence of this list”, retribution would have been in order. “It was not,” he maintains, “a cover up”.
Up to a point, Lord Copper. The leak was three years ago. Opinions differ on whether the breach becoming public knowledge would have increased the threat to those mentioned. But what is certain is that the previous government was conscious of how appalling a mistake this was, how embarrassing it was for all involved, and how much anger there would be – especially once the costs of transport, “family reunification”, and compensation were revealed.
What does this mean for the Tories?
Which brings us back to the Powell quotation. Did those in government who knew of this scandal have a duty to speak out, super-injunction or no super-injunction? Specifically, Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick – the Home Secretary and Immigration Minister during the breach. Both are on the immigration-restrictionist right of the Tory party; both have taken serious flack from Reform UK over what they knew and when, and their failure to speak out previously.
While both admit to knowing about the proposals and the super-injunction, both have made clear that they had left office before the scheme had been implemented and opposed the plans internally. Braverman suggests the scandal shows how “the last Conservative government let you down”. It’s up for more talented scholars of procedure to discern whether the pair’s claims that parliamentary privilege was overridden by the Official Secrets Act are correct.
Having spoken with both Jenrick and Farage in recent months, the former is far more convincing – a reasonable man whose patience is exhausted – even if Farage has the fame
But, in the case of Jenrick in particular, this has stalled his progress in outflanking Reform on immigration from the Right. For those who claim Jenrick – unlike Nigel Farage – is a Johnny-come-lately to immigration restrictionism, this is a sign that his conversion cannot be taken seriously. But I wouldn’t be so sure. Having spoken with both Jenrick and Farage in recent months, the former is far more convincing – a reasonable man whose patience is exhausted – even if Farage has the fame.
Awoken by the reality of a broken system that he witnessed firsthand, Jenrick is a repentant sinner. By contrast, Farage’s squabbling band of groupies, poseurs, and D-list celebs is difficult to take seriously, for all their polling success. This may have been embarrassing 48 hours for Jenrick. But he shouldn’t be written off – especially when polling from YouGov suggests 49 per cent of adults believe the government was ‘right to try and keep the breach a secret’.
Twitter, as ever, is not quite Britain. If only the public knew just how bad things really are.
William Atkinson is assistant content editor at The Spectator