Trump is in need of a scapegoat – look out Keir Starmer
Per the Trump playbook, the US President will promptly be in search of a scapegoat over Iran. Keir Starmer better get ready, writes Michael Martins in today’s Notebook
Trump Always Blames Others, as No 10 is finding out
What happens when President Trump kicks a hornet’s nest and tries to tell us it wasn’t his foot, or that the hornets are actually looking to remove their current Queen and that’s what all the buzzing is about?
He starts to look for someone to blame because Trump Always Blames Others (TABO).
This is already happening. Energy prices are rising, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the current regime in Tehran shows few signs of ceding control, and US midterms are nearing. For a President obsessed with winning, this is starting to look like a loss in need of a scapegoat.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s decision to stay out of the conflict and refuse US access to British bases, although supported by international law, the British public and Labour MPs, will likely fit the bill.
President Trump will continue to make the Strait of Hormuz’s re-opening, and therefore conflict with Iran, a political priority for his administration, so US allies should expect further pressure and rebukes for heel-dragging.
In line with the Trump playbook, he will call on allies, particularly NATO and energy-importing countries like the UK, to shoulder more of the burden securing the Strait. The argument will be simple and become louder: as US forces spend billions intercepting drones and missiles while taking casualties, America’s allies cannot free-ride on American hard power for access to energy.
This has already started to happen. Trump has publicly called on Starmer to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz, even though a British Navy ship took more than two weeks to journey to a British military base under attack because the unionised naval contractors complained about work-life balance.
So, as many in government have asked me – surely Trump will listen to reason? Surely Trump will recognise the UK’s constraints and Europe’s growing defence commitments elsewhere, often done at his behest? Surely, he will remember the state visit?
Ah – okay, so surely Trump will be a completely different person this time?
Good luck, as they say, with that.
The Department for Business should be a great office of state
Although the Great Offices are largely honorific, the Department for Business and Trade should be included in their midst. If we are ever going to pay attention to the people that take risks, employ others and invest in the country’s future, they should have the same seat at the table as those that are fixated on whether asylum seekers are staying in hotels. Who knows, maybe we’ll even get a Reform rally or two to give us a tax break at some point before the next election.
Juries should be paid
I was summoned for jury duty two weeks after I started Overton. At first, I was excited, but that feeling quickly reversed once I found out that it was basically a full-time, unpaid role. Overton was embryonic then so I begged the court for mercy, as it would have been a body blow. Now that juries are back in the news, I think rather than abolish them, we should pay jurors, especially the self-employed. Surely if we can pay benefits without means-testing, this core tenet of our justice system could also be supported. (93 words)
Military should get thrifty
Iran’s missile and drone attacks on neighbouring countries showed how inexpensive kit and training can be exceptionally effective during modern warfare. As markets began to question whether the UK would press ahead with more defence spending to prepare for a more dangerous world, I saw that the MoD has somehow managed to spend a quarter of a million pounds to train five drone pilots. How is this even possible? Ukraine has turned entire infantry platoons into pilots for less.
Jurassic Park is an AI fable
Jurassic Park was my favourite book as a kid, and I have been meaning to re-read it for decades. I recently managed to and I found it oddly comforting.
The well-known cautionary tale goes: company creates dinosaurs 🡪 dinosaurs become conscious 🡪 dinosaurs rebel and kill their human overlords.
But if you squint, you can see the parallels with the AI debates.
Companies created AI, which has begun to show nascent consciousness. To raise colossal sums of investment, AI companies speak about the technology like it is the second coming of Christ (or the return of dinosaurs). Those sales pitches are taken literally, and the debate spirals into: AI surpasses humanity’s intelligence 🡪 AI rebels 🡪 AI takes over and kills human overlords — much like Jurassic Park’s velociraptors, whom many of the human protagonists (spoiler alert) eventually manage to contain and overcome.
Get yourself a copy, it’s great – and comforting!
Michael Martins is founder of Overton Advisory and a former US Embassy London political and economic specialist