Tories deserve to win the economic battle
The Conservatives have taken a fair bit of stick for their claim that “the cost of Corbyn” would come in at £1.2 trillion.
Independent fact-checkers have dismissed the methodology and pointed out that it’s difficult for the Tories to cost Labour’s manifesto commitments when the manifesto hasn’t been published.
Still, the £1.2 trillion figure isn’t going back in the box, and Tory campaign chiefs are pumping it out on social media combined with a neat animation showing every taxpayer in the UK being hit with an additional £2,400 tax bill to pay for it all.
This figure is obviously absurd since it assumes all taxpayers pay an equal amount, but the claim is similar to Labour’s assertion that a US-UK trade deal will add £1bn a month to the cost of imported medicines.
In both cases, a crude hypothetical is deployed to illustrate what each party considers a valid point: that Labour will raise your taxes and the Tories can’t be trusted with the NHS.
These two propositions represent the most comfortable ground for each party.
But Labour has its work cut out on the NHS, with recent polls suggesting that their traditionally strong lead over the Tories on this issue is disappearing.
When it comes to trust on the economy, it’s good news for the Tories. The latest Lord Ashcroft Poll gives Johnson and Sajid Javid a near 20 point lead over Corbyn and John McDonnell.
Labour will try to paint the Tories as a party of the rich (nothing new there) but the economic record of George Osborne, Philip Hammond and now Javid should be defended.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies notes that tax policy will be a battleground in this election, and so yesterday released a briefing note containing key facts.
The first thing to note from the IFS wonks is their conclusion that the tax system as it stands, is undoubtedly progressive.
The highest-earning fifth of individuals have a household income that is 12 times higher than the bottom fifth, but after tax and benefits this falls to being just five times higher.
The other takeaway from the IFS is its confirmation that the top one per cent of earners are now paying 30 per cent of all income tax, up from 25 per cent in 2010.
Armed with this evidence and bolstered by Labour’s undeniably reckless spending pledges, the Tory lead on economic competence should climb higher still.
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