Chancellor’s tightrope walk will leave us holding our breath
By tradition, Chancellors are allowed a stiff drink at the despatch box as they deliver their Budget.
Parliamentary records tell us that Gladstone enjoyed sherry and beaten egg while the most recent Chancellor to indulge in this ancient right, Ken Clarke, opted for a straight whiskey. Since then, there’s been nothing but water in the glass.
However, Rachel Reeves would be forgiven for resurrecting Geoffrey Howe’s G&T, given the scale of the task that will face her when she gets to her feet on 30 October.
There’s a tightrope to walk and the government’s own ministers have spent the past three months painstakingly erecting the high-wire, warning us all of the dangers of the drop.
We’re told the crosswinds are mighty, the challenges are immense and pain is necessary – but, at the same time, most of us won’t notice any tax rises and the government won’t cut spending.
To reach for another metaphor, the Chancellor has spent months hurling landmines into a field and on Budget day she’s going to attempt to cut a path through the grass without treading on any.
In many ways, the Budget will be an exercise in damage repair.
The doom and gloom has depressed business and consumer sentiment, as people prepare for thin gruel and hard times. The very wealthy are leaving while the moderately well-off are taking urgent advice from their IFAs on how to protect their assets – including pensions.
With that in mind, some would consider it a success if the Chancellor rows back from the worst excesses that we’ve come to expect.
The raid on private equity might not be so severe; capital gains hikes might not hit everyone; perhaps only the very wealthy will take a hit to their pensions; non-doms might not be marched off the cliffs of Dover, just roughed up a bit.
But while it is certainly possible for each of these bad policies to be improved by tinkering and the moderating influence of officials, they will still represent – when taken together – an attack on the one thing that this government wants to be known for: economic growth.
Perhaps Reeves will play a blinder. Perhaps the critics will be silenced, the nervous among us calmed, the markets reassured and the spectators will applaud when she safely reaches the other side.
We can only hope so. The alternative is a long drop.