By: Paul Ormerod

Paul Ormerod is an economist at Volterra Partners LLP, author and an Honorary Professor at the Alliance Business School at the University of Manchester

All 206 Articles

Subsidies to Wales have made devolution a begging bowl rather than a point of pride

March 2, 2022

Did you raise a toast yesterday to the staff of Gwynedd Council in North Wales? They were enjoying their very own special Bank Holiday to celebrate the day of the patron saint of Wales, St David. Gwynedd council proudly declared in January that it would “grant” this extra holiday. All very well and good, except that [...]
A four day week must withstand the productivity test to be worth the gamble

February 23, 2022

Durham based challenger bank Atom has announced a four day working week for all of its 430 employees as more and more people debate the number of days we should be working. For SMEs in the services sector, a four day week is an attractive bandwagon to jump on. It is commonly given credit for [...]
Andrew Bailey fell asleep on inflation and now it is workers who will face the flames

February 17, 2022

Is there a comfortable chaise longue in the office of Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England? I think we should be told. Because it has become apparent that the Bank has been asleep on the job. In the year to December 2021, consumer prices rose by 5.4 per cent. We have to go [...]
State intervention can boost our economy but only the private sector can rebalance it

February 9, 2022

The government’s long awaited levelling up white paper was met with a lukewarm reception last week. One of the main complaints was that there was not enough – or in fact any – new money for the regions. Many localities have become stuck with low levels of productivity and, as a consequence, low levels of [...]
Uncertainty from our leaders is keeping our economic recovery wavering on the brink

February 2, 2022

In November last year, the UK’s total GDP output finally regained its pre-pandemic level. But although the economic recovery is on an upward trajectory, there is a disconcerting stop-start hesitancy to it. A reasonable indicator of where the economy stands in any given month is the purchasing managers’ index which shows the prevailing direction of [...]
Virus modellers must admit their mistakes and learn from the practice of transparency

January 26, 2022

By now, we all know about the poor track record of prediction by the academic modelling teams advising the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – Sage. The unreliable nature of economic projections is also evident, as analysis of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) database shows. Yet the epidemiologists could still learn from the experience [...]
Boris Johnson may be in political peril but his Covid-19 strategy was worth the risk

January 19, 2022

The last days have been of decisive importance in the life of this pandemic: the total number of Covid-19 cases in the country has started to fall, and is continuing to fall. Finally, we are well past the worst. Something to consider is that the figures we see in the headlines, no matter what data [...]
The mountain of debt cannot be ignored no matter how much the economy grows

January 12, 2022

Politicians and regulators are increasingly concerned about one phenomenon: buy-now-pay-later (BNPL). Nearly a year ago, the government agreed to regulate BNPL lenders, with an independent review chaired by City expert Christopher Woolard warning the sector represented a “significant potential consumer harm”. A Treasury consultation on BNPL only closed at the end of last year. It [...]
Lending a hand: government loans to energy firms can’t be the final answer

January 5, 2022

Some of the media seem to have become addicted to gloom. Most outfits have become cautiously optimistic on Covid-19, but the prospective double squeeze on living standards has rushed in to fill the gap. Consumers are faced with tax increases and sharp rises in energy bills. The surge in the world price of energy means [...]
Three Christmas presents for a Cabinet that lacks political grip

December 22, 2021

At this time of the year hapless members of the Cabinet, and even the Prime Minister himself, are entitled to some charity. We might usefully consider the gifts we would put under their trees on Christmas morning. Top of the list could well be both a Peloton and a deckchair. Sarah Healey, permanent secretary at [...]

Nine in ten hospitality job switchers quit the sector

Alpine boss confirms four potential buyers, including Mercedes, for F1 team

Spirit of Speyside Whisky Festival to drive millions into Scotch sector

By: Paul Ormerod

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