By: Paul Ormerod

Paul Ormerod is an economist at Volterra Partners LLP, author and an Honorary Professor at the Alliance Business School at the University of Manchester

All 218 Articles

A renewed focus on defence spending could turbocharge Britain’s scientific innovation

March 16, 2022

Germany, along with most of the rest of the EU, has finally woken up to the folly of relying on other countries – mainly the US but also the UK – to defend them. At the end of last month, Chancellor Olaf Schulz announced that €100bn will be put into a new defence procurement fund. [...]
As government debt jumps to fund defence spending, our economy will pay the price

March 9, 2022

Sanctions will clearly hit the Russian economy very hard. But economic prospects for the West are not exactly rosy. Twice in the 1970s and again in the early 90s, there were rapid spikes in oil prices; each instance was followed by economic recessions. The deep recession following 2008 was, of course, due to financial causes [...]
Subsidies to Wales have made devolution a begging bowl rather than a point of pride

March 2, 2022

Did you raise a toast yesterday to the staff of Gwynedd Council in North Wales? They were enjoying their very own special Bank Holiday to celebrate the day of the patron saint of Wales, St David. Gwynedd council proudly declared in January that it would “grant” this extra holiday. All very well and good, except that [...]
A four day week must withstand the productivity test to be worth the gamble

February 23, 2022

Durham based challenger bank Atom has announced a four day working week for all of its 430 employees as more and more people debate the number of days we should be working. For SMEs in the services sector, a four day week is an attractive bandwagon to jump on. It is commonly given credit for [...]
Andrew Bailey fell asleep on inflation and now it is workers who will face the flames

February 17, 2022

Is there a comfortable chaise longue in the office of Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England? I think we should be told. Because it has become apparent that the Bank has been asleep on the job. In the year to December 2021, consumer prices rose by 5.4 per cent. We have to go [...]
State intervention can boost our economy but only the private sector can rebalance it

February 9, 2022

The government’s long awaited levelling up white paper was met with a lukewarm reception last week. One of the main complaints was that there was not enough – or in fact any – new money for the regions. Many localities have become stuck with low levels of productivity and, as a consequence, low levels of [...]
Uncertainty from our leaders is keeping our economic recovery wavering on the brink

February 2, 2022

In November last year, the UK’s total GDP output finally regained its pre-pandemic level. But although the economic recovery is on an upward trajectory, there is a disconcerting stop-start hesitancy to it. A reasonable indicator of where the economy stands in any given month is the purchasing managers’ index which shows the prevailing direction of [...]
Virus modellers must admit their mistakes and learn from the practice of transparency

January 26, 2022

By now, we all know about the poor track record of prediction by the academic modelling teams advising the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – Sage. The unreliable nature of economic projections is also evident, as analysis of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) database shows. Yet the epidemiologists could still learn from the experience [...]
Boris Johnson may be in political peril but his Covid-19 strategy was worth the risk

January 19, 2022

The last days have been of decisive importance in the life of this pandemic: the total number of Covid-19 cases in the country has started to fall, and is continuing to fall. Finally, we are well past the worst. Something to consider is that the figures we see in the headlines, no matter what data [...]
The mountain of debt cannot be ignored no matter how much the economy grows

January 12, 2022

Politicians and regulators are increasingly concerned about one phenomenon: buy-now-pay-later (BNPL). Nearly a year ago, the government agreed to regulate BNPL lenders, with an independent review chaired by City expert Christopher Woolard warning the sector represented a “significant potential consumer harm”. A Treasury consultation on BNPL only closed at the end of last year. It [...]

Serco hits back after Zia Yusuf accuses FTSE 250 firm of being ‘hostile to Reform’

Royal Ascot worth £140m to UK economy

The best places to eat sandwiches in Lisbon, from bifanas to pregos

By: Paul Ormerod

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