Thoughts ahead of the Budget November 20, 2017 This coming week is the second Budget of the year, the first of the new Parliament and the penultimate one before the UK leaves the EU in March 2019. The UK may prolong its tenure in the EU through a yet-to-be-agreed transition deal, but even so we are just over half-way through the Article 50 [...]
President Xi’s economic aim and the China Dream October 27, 2017 Following the opening of the 19th National People's Congress in Beijing, our chief economic strategist Gerard Lyons gave his personal view on President Xi's main speech. Our investment committee keeps fully abreast of global affairs, both in terms of the opportunities they offer and the wider implications. The Chinese NPC is a political gathering and [...]
UK inflation rises, adding to pressure on rates October 20, 2017 There are two key domestic issues this week for UK financial markets. One is the latest inflation news and the implications for interest rates. The second is the ongoing Brexit discussions and what might the latest phase imply for settling. Let's focus here on the inflation news. This week's data release showed that inflation rose [...]
How the UK can plug the productivity gap October 13, 2017 Addressing the UK’s low productivity is more important than ever and whilst there is no magical solution to the problem, we can make improvements, says Gerard Lyons. Productivity helps determine a country's long-term performance. It measures output per person or per hour worked. Over time, high productive economies have higher output and living standards. Low [...]
Germany, ‘Jamaica’, France & the UK – a European update October 2, 2017 The German elections could be a game changer. It is still too early to tell what impact they will have on future German and European policy, but the immediate reception they are receiving in Germany suggests it could yet prove profound. Germany But, first things first. After an unconvincing campaign, Merkel was re-elected Chancellor for [...]
How geopolitics trumps economics July 7, 2017 Earlier this week I attended the "Athens Seminar", an economic and political round table discussion that has been hosted annually since 1979. I thought it would be of interest to share some of the main takeaways, as they help understand the current environment. Since the global financial crisis, economic and financial issues have dominated this [...]
Don’t underestimate the risks of interest rate hikes to the global economy June 27, 2017 In recent months sentiment towards financial markets has been broadly positive in Western economies. But, as the recent UK political situation has demonstrated, sentiment can quickly change. Such swings also happen in financial markets. Here I highlight some of the key current macro-economic issues to watch for. Global recovery gaining traction The world economy is [...]
What a minority government means for the UK economy June 19, 2017 After the shock of the general election, resulting in a hung Parliament and minority Conservative Government, what are the implications for the economy and investors? In terms of the political outlook, three scenarios strike me as likely. First, and most likely, the Conservatives remain in power, with the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) [...]
As analysts predict softer growth in both 2017 and 2018, are we still being too pessimistic about Brexit? December 13, 2016 Gerard Lyons, co-chair at Economists for Brexit, says Yes. The UK’s big challenge is that we talk ourselves into an unnecessary downturn. Across the globe, people read constant negative comments from UK economists and politicians. The fact they were wrong before the EU referendum doesn’t seem to bother them. Despite this, many global firms are [...]
