China: what zero tolerance, supply chain disruption and floods mean for economic growth City Talk Ongoing disruptions mean that we have lowered our forecast for growth in China this year. Activity lost due to outbreaks of Covid and supply chain bottlenecks will be largely recouped, but the lagged effects of past policy tightening are only just starting to take effect. As a result we continue to expect growth to slow [...]
Why China’s stunning vaccine surge could be good news for the world City Talk Not only is the rapid roll-out of Covid-19 vaccinations in China good news for the domestic economy, but it could also potentially see a sharp increase in exports of treatments to other emerging markets (EM). That would help those EM that have so far lagged behind in the vaccination race. And the geopolitical dynamics could [...]
Should EM investors be worried about tapering? City Talk In our latest Economic and Strategy Viewpoint we brought forward our expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy tightening. We still think that the current bout of inflation in the US will prove to be largely transitory. However, the strength of the US economic recovery means that we now expect underlying price pressures to build next year such [...]
How are vaccine programmes progressing in emerging markets? June 11, 2021 Some emerging markets will be vulnerable to renewed activity restrictions in the coming months. For investors, this will require careful monitoring. The roll out of Covid-19 vaccines remains a conundrum facing investors in emerging markets (EM). As we noted late last year, few EM were proactive in securing sufficient supplies of effective vaccines. So they were [...]
The vaccine challenge facing emerging markets January 18, 2021 News that effective vaccines against Covid-19 are slowly being rolled out in some parts of the world has brought the end of the corona crisis into view and buoyed investor sentiment. But we are not yet out of the woods, particularly in emerging markets (EM) where some countries are suffering renewed outbreaks of the virus. [...]
