Regime shift: investing into the new era City Talk As this economic cycle ends, we shouldn’t expect to see the patterns of the past decade repeated. A new regime in policy and market behaviour is unfolding which investors need to understand if they are to find the best opportunities and safeguard their portfolios. The re-opening of economies after Covid sparked a phenomenon investors have [...]
Can UK handle a rate rise as economy rebounds? City Talk The UK economy grew by 0.4% in the month of August after latest estimates showed GDP contracted in July by 0.1%. July was disrupted by a spike in infections and tougher restrictions on self-isolation and testing for anyone in contact with those testing positive for Covid-19. This was known as the “pingdemic”, referring to the [...]
Germany after Merkel: what’s next? City Talk The Anglela Merkel era is drawing to a close in German politics. 16 years as chancellor has brought stability and steady growth, but her departure now leaves a void that her Christian Democratic union (CDU) party has struggled to fill. This weekend’s election is likely to be one of the most open contests in decades. [...]
How strong might the UK’s post-Covid economic recovery be? April 30, 2021 It has been a tough start to the year for the UK. As lockdown restrictions continue to slowly ease, we examine the progress made in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic, and whether hopes for a strong economic recovery are well founded. Vaccines offered hope, speedy inoculation will solidify the recovery A year on from the start [...]
Brexit: what’s next? The crunch dates ahead and what investors expect January 31, 2020 The UK voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52% to 48% in a referendum held on 23 June 2016. Since then, the debate over how and when the UK’s departure would happen has dominated the news in the UK. The December 2019 general election gave the Conservative party the majority it [...]
Could the coronavirus derail the global recovery? January 28, 2020 Concerns over the spread of the coronavirus are escalating as the death toll has jumped to 81 with 2,744 confirmed cases worldwide (as at 11:00 GMT, 27 January). Travel restrictions on about 40 million people around Wuhan, in the Hubei province of China, have been introduced in an effort to contain the outbreak. However, cases [...]
What does the Conservatives’ victory mean for the UK economy and markets? December 20, 2019 The large majority for Boris Johnson’s Conservative party sees the pound and UK shares react positively, as investors welcome greater clarity on the policy backdrop. The pound climbs against other major currencies and stock markets gain as the scale of the Conservative win removes policy uncertainty. Within UK equities, companies whose operations focus on the [...]
Why has the weaker pound failed to turbocharge the economy? August 5, 2019 The sharp fall in the pound in the wake of the 2016 Brexit referendum would help “rebalance the UK economy”, in the words of Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England. But since then, the UK has struggled to improve its trade position and has certainly not seen any boost to GDP growth. [...]
Budget 2018: Austerity killed off – if a Brexit horror show is avoided October 31, 2018 The 2018 Budget was brought forward this year to avoid a nightmare clash with the Brexit negotiations. It was clear from the Chancellor’s speech that he was keen to avoid a ghoulish backlash from any controversial announcements. Indeed, the majority of policy measures unearthed had been leaked to the press beforehand, leaving Philip Hammond with [...]
Can the UK economy cope with sustained house price falls? June 19, 2018 Brexit uncertainty is far from over. Indeed, as we approach the crunch point in negotiations over the summer, we expect rhetoric of hard Brexit and a cliff edge to reach a crescendo, before a final deal is agreed in September or October. Meanwhile, business and consumer confidence are likely to continue to suffer, causing decisions [...]
