Ollie Phillips: Habits die hard as the Premiership reaches half way
After this week’s Premiership action, each of the 13 teams will be halfway through their seasons. Some have outperformed my expectations, like Gloucester, and others have – thankfully – lived up to my predictions, like Leicester.
The Premiership, though, despite its lack of relegation and jeopardy, has proven that habits are hard to break in professional sport.
The Tigers have got into a habit of winning, and if they beat Wasps on Sunday they’ll have stayed unbeaten for an entire half-season – some feat in this league.
Likewise, Bath have got into the habit of losing, and nothing they try seems to be working on the field. Unless incoming coach Johann van Graan can force drastic changes on a similar level to Steve Borthwick at Leicester, it’s going to be one tough gig for the current Munster coach.
This is what makes the Premiership so interesting at the moment: it’s just so competitive.
Two sides who were struggling last year, Gloucester and Tigers, are top-four sides this season. Meanwhile, two teams who finished last year in the play-off places, Sale Sharks and Bristol Bears, are struggling hugely this time around.
That doesn’t mean the games aren’t entertaining though. I just don’t think the Premiership would be like this if we brought back relegation.
While the risk of the drop is on hold, teams are giving it a crack – and that’s what we want.
If a side were to come up, I’d back the inclusion of the Jersey Reds or Ealing Trailfinders.
I love the Cornish Pirates and what they’re about, I’m just not sure they’ll be able to pump the amount of money needed into the team to keep them competitive in the long term.
There could be a compromise here, though, whereby relegation happens every three or four years. It would need some fine-tuning but it would at least give the Championship side a chance to settle into the league.
My Premiership top four
Back to the here and now though, and I’ve made a few predictions for the rest of the season.
Firstly, my top four. I think Leicester will be there, I just wonder how far they can go without being beaten. Imagine if it’s all the way?
Saracens have done a brilliant job and have returned to the league with some real intent – they’ll be there.
I also think defending champions Harlequins will make the play-offs. They’re backing up the hype and making sure their axis of Danny Care and Marcus Smith stays fit, as well as Alex Dombrandt and key cog Joe Marler.
As for the final spot, it’s between Northampton Saints, Gloucester and Exeter Chiefs.
Gloucester and Northampton are there or thereabouts but I’m just not too sure they’re quite top-four material this season – though that could change.
Exeter’s experience could count for a lot. They’ve been there and done it so many times that it’s difficult to write them off – even if they’re not in their traditionally strong form.
The Six Nations could make a difference, too, with a flurry of international absentees damaging some teams and a lack of internationals benefiting others, like London Irish.
This Premiership season has been outstanding so far, and if we continue to get the level of rugby we have enjoyed, we’re in for a wild ride.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance, experts in leadership development and behavioural change. Follow Ollie on Twitter and on LinkedIn.