Home team likely to be steamrolled again
THERE was a sense of embarrassment 12 months ago when the Irish left Cheltenham with a record 23 winners from a possible 28, and there is much hope the home team will put up a sterner defence this time around.
Talk in the build-up has been of Great Britain winning the first three races with Constitution Hill (Supreme), Edwardstone (Arkle) and loads of chances in the Ultima Handicap.
Even so, the Irish are a best-priced 1/12 with William Hill to land the Prestbury Cup, with Great Britain a 10/1 shot and the tie at 12/1.
The reality is that even with a flying start, the home team is hugely up against it and it’s hard not to expect another dominant Irish display as our hand on Thursday and Friday gets a little light.
Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott are bringing over in excess of 100 horses between them and at the time of writing are currently responsible for 18 favourites.
That really doesn’t tell the full story as if you look closely at most races in which the pair hold strong hands, they also saddle the most likely dangers to the market leader in question.
It’s really hard to see how Great Britain can hit a double-figure score and I’m expecting a case of déjà vu.
I anticipate the Irish will get close to 20+ winners again and for that reason recommend backing the Irish -8.5 winners at 5/6 with Star Sports.
The battle to be top trainer looks a straight shootout between Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott with William Hill offering 1/2 about the former and 5/2 about the latter.
I’m not one for taking really short prices, but if I was then Mullins would definitely get the call in that match.
It should be pretty close between them with both likely to record huge numbers of successes.
If for some reason one arrives with their team under par, then the race to be top trainer could go either way.
For that reason, it may be worth taking advantage of Sky Bet’s combined trainer Festival winners’ market.
They have paired Mullins, Elliott and Henderson together and offer 5/6 that the trio saddle 15 or more winners.
That seems like a mountain to climb but the reality is that working as a trio they should hit that number with relative ease.
Don’t forget that if the likes of Constitution Hill and Shishkin fluff their lines for Henderson it will be Mullins and Elliott that pick up the pieces and vice versa.
The trio are responsible for the first five in the betting in the Supreme, four of the top five in both the Arkle and Champion Hurdle, not to mention the top two in the last two races.
POINTERS
Irish to win Prestbury Cup Handicap -8.5 winners 5/6 Star Sports
Mullins, Elliott and Henderson 15 or more winners 5/6 Sky Bet