Donald Trump won’t annex Greenland – this is part of his standard playbook
President Trump has a standard political playbook, and his Greenland threats are right on script, writes former US Embassy specialist Michael Martins in today’s Notebook
Denmark can diffuse Trump on Greenland
On a recent client call, I argued that the massive US naval deployment off Venezuela for a three-hour extraction looked more like President Trump searching for a quick win rather than a war. Therefore, until American ships are moving towards Nuuk, I tend not to take talk of a Greenland annexation too seriously.
It was a difficult call then and it remains a difficult one now, but it is, unpopularly, what I happen to think.
I know this is an intensely emotional issue for many, but this is generally how President Trump negotiates. When he is looking for a political win, he has a standard playbook. He threatens the most extreme scenario to focus minds and then raises prices to force his counter parties to come closer to his terms and offer something up they think he wants. He then pockets the win before repeating the process over again or moving on to a new target.
I think the same will be the case for Greenland.
I am a firm believer in NATO as a force for good and in the United States’ alliances as a power multiplier. However, I don’t think pointing out to President Trump that an attack on Denmark would end NATO will work because this is the very leverage Trump is using. Highlighting this will just make him more confident.
Instead, the Danish government should try three options to diffuse the situation.
First, sign an investment agreement to give the US preferential access to Greenland’s strategic minerals, like what Ukraine did to unlock US funding for their war effort. Even if there is one already in place, update it and have an elaborate signing ceremony.
Second, offer to pay for an additional US military base in Greenland or name an existing NATO one after President Trump, which is what the Polish government did during Trump’s first term. “Fort Trump” was never built but US troops remained in Poland.
Finally, find him a new focus. Canadian PM Carney’s recent cosying up to Chinese President Jinping ahead of the USMCA FTA renegotiations is an obvious idea.
Beware the NOMPTYs
During the pandemic, I learned to cycle in London, and my gateway drug was a Lime e-bike. Cycling is now my preferred mode of transport and Monzo’s year-end data shows I’m not alone, with Londoners spending £10m on the green e-bikes last summer. So, it is my firm belief that local councils will now press ahead to end this joy because a few vocal NOMPTYs (Not On My Pavement, Thank You) get upset about a bit of clutter easily stepped around. On behalf of London’s happiness, please resist the urge.
The Tube should be open during Christmas
Sadiq Khan has been trumpeting London’s multiculturalism as ragebait for President Trump and to lift Labour’s polling numbers ahead of May’s local elections, while simultaneously making a virtue of sharing faith with New York’s new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, the standard-bearer of progressive opposition to Trump. I therefore found it slightly hypocritical for Khan to shut the Tube on Christmas, a Christian holiday, in a majority non-Christian city, denying TfL staff of other faiths the chance to earn overtime pay. Woke when it suits?
Why has my water bill surged?
I was shocked this autumn when my water bill went up 50 per cent even as my usage went down 20 per cent. I assumed that this was a result of taxes going up but HM Treasury pretending math doesn’t exist when it suits their balance sheets. In practice, though, buried in the obscure annals of government procurement contracts, Thames Water is going to splash out on £435m, or the equivalent of building five schools or 25 GP surgeries, to upgrade its IT systems. Glad we have such a generous negotiator in our corner.
A recommendation: Ingrid Jennison, the psychologist that decodes TV shows
I spent much of the holiday rewatching a few favourite TV series, and so it was a Christmas miracle to find Ingrid Jennison, a psychologist on Instagram that does psychoanalytic deep dives into the behaviours of some of my favourite TV and movie characters.
Answering questions like “What does the fox represent in Fleabag?”, “What do Tony Soprano’s fever dreams mean?,” and “What did the fly tell us about Breaking Bad’s Walter White?,” the level of psychoanalytical depth she goes into to break down and situate character in their worlds is The Best – give her a follow, just be aware that most of her content is very, very spoiler-heavy.
Michael Martins is the founder of Overton Advisory and a former political and economic specialist at the US Embassy London