CITY LOSES TO OCTOPUS IN FOOTY FORECASTS
OH, HOW they chortled in the City yesterday at comparisons between the world’s most famous cephalopod and those investment banks who dared to put out predictions on the outcome of the World Cup.
Paul the psychic octopus, they sniggered, had managed to get EVERY SINGLE ONE of his predictions correct, beating statistical odds of 1/256.
Kaggle, the data prediction platform, jumped in on the action, yelling that in its own World Cup predicting competition, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, UBS and Danske Bank had all fared between 28th and 64th out of 65. (JP Morgan picked England to win it – don’t laugh, it did seem at least remotely plausible at the time – while the other three plumped for Brazil.)
All of the banks kept a dignified silence on their thrashing yesterday except for Evolution, whose fixed income specialist Gary Jenkins had also released a tongue-in-cheek forecast for the tournament (Brazil, again) and was happy to give his tuppence-worth on the results.
“Clearly against Paul, we’ve all done appallingly,” Jenkins roared enthusiastically. “But he has got a huge advantage over me – one, he doesn’t have to work and can sit in his tank all day watching footy, and two, he’s got more brains. Everything’s working in his favour…”
Good to see at least one of the red-faced analysts taking the defeat on the chin.
HUMAN TOUCH
After all of the vehement banker-bashing to which the City has been subjected in the
wake of the crisis, it makes a welcome change to hear someone actually willing to stop and ask for a second side to the story.
The fact that the person in question is actor and Old Vic artistic director Kevin Spacey makes it that much more gratifying.
Spacey has been busy over the past few months doing reams of research for his latest film project, Margin Call, which is set during the chaos of the financial crisis.
And having descended for a while on Citigroup’s New York offices to talk to the bankers, Spacey is clearly keen to show the world their point of view.
“I’m trying to humanise bankers,” Spacey told a US newspaper between takes on the film set. “Everyone talks about facts, figures and debt. I was more interested in what they were feeling… I listened with some degree of surprise about the weight of having knowledge that others don’t, how that shifted relationships – what guys couldn’t even tell their wives at the height of the turmoil…”
The Capitalist awaits the finished product with anticipation.
DOG EAT DOG
A warning to Lord Levene and Sir David Walker, who are attempting to break into the UK high street banking world with a new venture to be listed at the end of the month. First Virgin Money came out guns a-blazing, claiming they’d still be “very much in the hunt” for the Lloyds and Northern Rock assets on which the experienced pair have a beady eye. And now another of their new rivals, Metro Bank, has entered the fray, with chairman Anthony Thomson insisting that unless something changes, Levene and Walker are going to find the going rather tougher than expected.
“If all they’re going to do is buy a bit of Lloyds or Northern Rock, paint it a different colour and put a different logo on it, how will that be different?” Thomson demanded during a chat yesterday. “The reality is that if there is no significant point of differentiation, there is no encouragement for customers to switch to them and stay with them.”
Metro, of course, makes differentiation its key business ploy, offering late hours, weekend openings and other little touches such as free water and chewies for customers’ dogs, so it’s certainly got the cute factor.
ROW OF LEAN
Congratulations are most certainly in order for one of the most impressive feats of endurance The Capitalist has seen from one of the City crowd.
John “Johnners” McCormick, the managing director of financial printers Sterling, at the weekend completed an awe-inducing 920-mile, 12-week charity run all the way from John O’Groats to Land’s End.
McCormick – who’ll readily admit that before he started he wasn’t exactly a lean, mean, running machine – is now 8lbs lighter and a whole lot trimmer, apart from with a very swollen left knee. After arriving at Land’s End, he blogged: “There was no immediate euphoric sense of achievement (perhaps that will come later), just more a feeling of immense relief, satisfaction and something I struggle with at times, pride… Then the madness started. Cava, banners, kisses, handshakes, a tenner for a photograph at the signpost, and a massive round of drinks in the pub.” For anyone who wants to chuck him a few quid in aid of disadvantaged children’s charity Chicks, his website is www.johnnersrunsjogle.com – on which he’s posted, among other things, a web diary of the changes to his nude physique over the course of the run. Ooh-err.
JOKE DU JOUR
Good to see from the first extract of Lord Mandelson’s memoirs that not all the members of New Labour lost their sense of humour after their drubbing at the general election.
Mandy recounts that he texted former Prime Minister Tony Blair (left) on the Sunday following the election to set up a time to talk about the coalition discussions with Nick Clegg, mentioning that “GB is going to church”.
“He’ll find that a tougher negotiation,” replied Blair, deadpan.