The real reason the chancellor should not let the OBR audit party manifestos December 9, 2013 IT HAS been a tough week for Ed Balls. Many within Labour are said to be questioning his position as shadow chancellor following his disastrous response to George Osborne’s Autumn Statement. While Balls claims he “couldn’t give a toss” about the speculation, he needs to repair his party’s economic credibility, and fast. That’s one reason [...]
Why the 50-year bull market may end with a whimper not a bang December 9, 2013 MY NEXT Gresham professorial lecture has the provocative title “Was Karl Marx always wrong?”, but those wanting a detailed dissection of Marxism should stay away. Rather, I used this to highlight one of the important phenomena of our times – the falling share of labour incomes of GDP. The fall has meant a growing share [...]
Letters to the Editor – 10/12 – SME support, Savings crisis, Best of Twitter December 9, 2013 SME support [Re: Autumn Statement 2013: What it means for UK entrepreneurs, yesterday] Philip Salter’s points are well made – the chancellor’s initiatives are far too little and far too late to make much of a difference. While action on business rates was a step in the right direction, for example, they are still in urgent need of [...]
Bank timidity over interest rate rises risks a destabilising build-up in debt December 8, 2013 THE BANK of England’s revised mandate may push the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates on hold for too long, complicating efforts to bring down inflation and household debt to more prudent levels. Key to the timing of interest rate rises will be unemployment, since the Bank is highly unlikely to hike rates [...]
City Matters: It’s time for financial results to reflect the new face of post-crisis business December 8, 2013 ONE OF the charges that has often been laid against the City in recent years is that it has been too focused on short-term value. Many things have changed as a result of the crash, and one of them has been an increased awareness that the way companies currently report results is not fit for [...]
The miracle of Robben Island: Why Mandela matters internationally December 8, 2013 AFTER the oceans of ink that have rightly been spilled these past few days lauding Nelson Mandela, is there anything left to say? Perhaps just this. Those of us who analyse the world for a living think in terms of large macro phenomena: rates of GDP, demographic trends, military capabilities, national political cultures. We are [...]
Letters to the Editor – 09/12 – Toll roads, Labour flailing, Best of Twitter December 8, 2013 Toll roads [Re: Government scraps plans for toll pricing as taxpayers pick up tab, Tuesday] It is a shame that the government seems to have ignored the economic argument for toll roads. Pricing mechanisms have proven themselves in other areas of transport as an efficient means of allocating scarce resources, like road space. Moreover, technological [...]
Timid new policies do little to address the risks behind Osborne’s good news December 5, 2013 FOR THE first time since before the financial crisis, the chancellor of the Exchequer was able to stand up and announce some good news at the Autumn Statement yesterday: the deficit, the labour market, and growth are all better than expected. Alistair Darling started by predicting a “trampoline” recovery when the recession first hit, with [...]
The chancellor did nothing to reverse the decline in long-term savings December 5, 2013 THE AUTUMN Statement confirmed what we already knew. The UK recovery is on track and is set to strengthen. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) now expects growth of 1.4 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014. In fact, these forecasts will likely be exceeded. And together with the astute announcements of [...]
Plan A has worked but it hasn’t avoided disaster December 5, 2013 ACCOMPANYING the Autumn Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) upgraded expected growth for 2013 to 1.4 per cent and for 2014 to 2.4 per cent, while the deficit in 2013-14 has returned to falling for the first time since 2010-11. George Osborne says this showed Plan A worked. Is he right? Yes and no. [...]