If Theresa May’s withdrawal deal passes, it will haunt the Tories forever
Thank you John Bercow.
I’m sure that the speaker had his own reasons for announcing that Theresa May cannot just keep bringing back the same motion to parliament so she can browbeat, blackmail and bribe her backbench MPs into supporting the abomination that is her withdrawal agreement.
I’m sure he is hoping that, in whittling down the options open to the government, he is doing his best to frustrate Brexit and maybe even reverse it.
But I really don’t care about his motives – I am grateful to him nonetheless for obstructing May’s plan.
We were already seeing MPs holding their noses and opining that they would vote for a bad, no, a very bad deal rather than risk having nothing to show for all their best efforts over the last two years.
Succumbing to the Prime Minister’s bullying is not good government, it is not how to make good laws, and it is certainly not how to agree what will become an international treaty that will be practically impossible to amend or escape from.
Of course, the Prime Minister shall try to find ways to circumvent Bercow’s ruling – so her deal is not dead yet. If passed, it will not be long before the stark and desperate reality is recognised by the British public.
At that point, probably before the local elections in May, the Conservative party in general and particularly those Tory MPs who backed the Prime Minister will be accused of betraying and humiliating a once great country.
Over time, the political price for Conservatives will be heavy. Donors will withdraw support, awaiting at the very least a change in leader. Such will be the shame of activists over what has been done that they will stop leafleting and canvassing.
Good councillors will lose and councils will be lost to other parties. Some MPs wishing to escape the carnage might transfer over to some nebulous independent party – but it shall not save them, for the wanted posters with their names and faces on them will be enough to remind voters who is to blame.
Blame for what you may say?
For the travesty that is the withdrawal agreement.
Never mind the backstop. This is about the realisation dawning that the promised lucrative trade deals will never materialise (because they can’t); that more than £39bn will keep going to the EU; that the EU will sign its own trade deals which the UK cannot access (because that’s the new rule); all while we take on new regulations and taxes under the jurisdiction of the European courts without any say whatsoever (because we will have signed up for this).
All of these mistakes and more will quickly begin to haunt whoever is in government.
Some Tories will say that they can improve the agreement as they negotiate a new free trade deal, but they are fooling themselves. They will have given away all the bargaining leverage they once had, while the backstop will slowly eat away at Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom.
Businesses in Belfast, Bangor and Ballymena will have to turn to MEPs in the Republic of Ireland to have a voice on any new regulations that impact their markets – and the public in Portadown and Portrush will have to do the same.
With the withdrawal agreement passed, the EU leadership can find the time to deal with their many problems while pointing to the UK as a warning about what happens to dissenting members states.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister will fight to carry on regardless and trash the next negotiation just as she has trashed the first.
The only alternative is to forget all talk of an extension to Article 50 and leave on 29 March, using the dozens of mini deals already in place to provide a soft landing. And with one bound we shall be free.