From airships or supersonic jets, air travel is about to change forever
The phrase “a perfect storm” is frequently overused. But when it comes to aviation, it is no exaggeration.
Indeed, the collision of the Covid-19 pandemic with the challenges the civil aviation industry was already facing is certain to precipitate the mother of all root and branch transformations in air travel.
While journalists today write glibly about “travel corridors” and “air bridges” and excitedly report that web searches for July holidays to Italy and France have exploded over the past few days, it is worth noting that flights to and from Europe are currently still down 90 per cent compared to last year.
And Covid-19 is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the industry. The long-term viability and sustainability of air travel has long been under threat, and this new crisis has only exacerbated deep-seated existing issues.
Following the 9/11 terror attacks and the SARS epidemic, many predicted the end of mass market air travel altogether. Certainly, new security measures made flying a very different (and often much worse) experience from the glory days at the end of the twentieth century.
Yet with the arrival of highly scalable, point-to-point flights, enabled by new aircraft such as the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350, air travel continued to grow apace. This growth was driven by many more people flying with low-cost carriers, with fewer — if any — empty seats.
Given how quickly the industry bounced back then, it might be easy to assume the same will be true now. However, today’s challenges are far more long-lasting.
Covid-19 will be much more transformative than the events of two decades ago. The current crisis is not just about the pandemic — it’s also about a collapse in demand on a scale not seen since the 1930s, and significant shifts in consumer preferences towards safety and sustainability.
We have all seen the impact. Vulnerable carriers such as FlyBe and Virgin Australia are already bankrupt. Heavyweights like Emirates and Abu Dhabi’s Etihad have had to adapt rapidly — Emirates is cutting jobs, and both are refocusing on freight.
The big civil aviation manufacturers, such as Boeing and Rolls-Royce, have acknowledged the drop in demand and acted swiftly, shedding thousands of jobs.
From the passenger perspective, the entire end-to-end experience of air travel needs to be transformed for the sake of public health. Space constraints and social distancing require a radical rethink of the airport and flying experience, from retail to dining and drinking, boarding aircraft, and collecting luggage. The sheer volume and pace of air travel are unlikely to be the same again.
Even as the experience of flying must evolve on the ground, with technological innovations such as the introduction of touchless kiosks — scanning via a code, or through voice commands — and high-speed testing at terminals, it is in the air that the most significant changes must come. Achieving acceptable levels of separation makes today’s rack ’em and stack ’em seating infeasible. Inevitable lower load factors will drive up costs per passenger mile, necessitating higher prices.
Moreover, despite assurances from the boss of Airbus that aircraft cabins benefit from extremely clean air, there is widespread recognition that securing public trust is another critical battle. Will travellers feel comfortable spending hours in a confined space breathing the same recycled air as other passengers?
Put together, Covid-19’s challenges are set to become a catalyst that sparks a longer-lasting rejection of modern mass-market air travel — a rejection already underway thanks to concerns about carbon footprints, reflected in the #flygtsam movement (a Swedish word that translates roughly as “flight shame”).
And now that we have all become so used to conducting meetings via Zoom, business travellers too will be increasingly reluctant to pay the price of a wearisome long-haul flight. Getting up in the middle of the night for a call with another time zone is not pleasant, but it’s often preferable to a brutal red-eye flight.
So what does a viable, sustainable future for air travel look like, and how do industry players take this giant leap into new territory?
At one end of the spectrum, regional airlines might consider investing in slow but sustainable electric aircraft, such as Eviation’s Alice which works well for short-haul hops.
At the other, for those fortunate few who can afford to pay a premium, supersonic travel may make a return, through accelerated adoption of “son-of-Concorde” aircraft from manufacturers such as Boom Supersonic and Aerion Supersonic.
But for most, the key to the rebirth of mass market air travel will be reimagining the experience, leveraging technology to recreate the serenity and serendipity of flying’s golden age throughout the customer’s journey: slower, more spacious, serene, and sustainable.
With fewer flights, electric aircraft, economic incentives, and customer preferences that force airlines to reconfigure their fleets and retire inefficient aircraft, we can all reap the benefits of reduced carbon emissions.
And for those untroubled by speed, perhaps the airship may make a return to our skies? Maybe companies such as British-owned Airlander will soon be taking passengers on long-duration flights to distant destinations such as Australia and the Far East.
Recent research suggests that if the cabins are comfortable enough, many would embrace that experience.
Whatever happens, air travel is about to change forever.
Main image credit: Getty