Energy price cap to jump 13 per cent this summer

UK households will be hit by a sharp rise in energy bills next month, leaving Brits bracing for a painful winter of higher bills off the back of the Iran war.

From 1 July to 30 September the annual energy price cap will be £1,862 per year, a 13 per cent jump from the prior period, for a typical household across England, Scotland and Wales.

The rise also comes in above forecasts by Cornwall Insight, which had projected a £1,850 increase last week, up from the current cap of £1,641.

The analyst’s forecast has changed over the course of the conflict between the US and Iran, hovering up as high as £1,973 as of 20 March, before dipping to £1,929, following the fragile ceasefire.

Worrying winter

The cap sets the maximum price per unit of gas and electricity used, meaning households only pay for the amount of energy they use.

But while households will be largely shielded over the warm summer months, concerns are growing over a painful hit when the cap is once again reviewed in October and energy demand grows as temperatures drop.

Cornwall Insight’s forecasts suggest the cap in October will be at a similar level to July, even if the Middle East conflict ends soon, after physical damage to infrastructure from airstrikes and the lingering effect of disrupted oil and gas supplies.

Call to action

Calls have been growing for the government to set out action to support the most vulnerable, but Rachel Reeves stopped short of any immediate energy measures in her cost-of-living plan.

The Chancellor told MPs last week: “We stand ready to act if market conditions worsen significantly later this year and I have been leading cross-Government contingency work on design of potential future targeted and temporary support for businesses.”

Energy costs have been sent soaring by Iran’s move to block the Strait of Hormuz early in the conflict, stopping a fifth of the world’s oil being transported.

Households have yet to feel the impact, as the price cap is reviewed on a quarterly basis, and April saw a seven per cent drop following government measures to reduce bills.

This included moving 75 per cent of the cost of the UK’s renewables obligation from household bills on to general taxation, and scrapping the energy company obligation scheme.


Tide Crosses 2 Million Members Worldwide – Big Step Forward in Mission to Support and Grow Small Businesses

Tide, the UK’s leading business management platform, today announces it has crossed 2 million members globally, with India in particular seeing strong growth. More than 1.1 million small businesses joined Tide in India since the company launched there in December 2022. This makes India Tide’s fastest-growing market by member acquisition.

The UK is Tide’s home market, with 900,000 SMEs, 15% market share, and the majority of the company’s revenue. Tide’s steadily expanding its presence in Europe, with Germany and France, where the platform is gaining strong traction, thanks to millions of small businesses turning to digital to manage their businesses.

In late 2025, Tide received a strategic investment from TPG, a leading global alternative asset manager, valuing the company at $1.5 billion.

Oliver Prill, CEO of Tide, said: “We are delighted to be crossing the 2 million member milestone. This number is a testament to the trust that our members place in us in all our markets. Behind every number, there’s a story of a member choosing a simpler, less time-heavy, connected way of managing their business.

“This success is also thanks to the passion our teams bring to their role every day. From our world-leading 900-strong product engineering teams, to operations, marketing and support functions; a commitment to excellence and agility has brought us to this point. India’s growth in member numbers is phenomenal, and shows how getting the product-market fit right when considering new markets is crucial. We’ll continue to expand both internationally and provide a richer and more connected product offering, ensuring we focus at all times on our mission to save members time and money.”

Highlights:

Product pipeline, International expansion and the future

 

Tide celebrates 2 million global members, highlighting UK and India growth in small business support and financial tools

Contact

Lloyd Purnell, press@tide.co

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“We are delighted to be crossing the 2 million member milestone. This number is a testament to the trust that our members place in us in all our markets.”

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FTSE 100 Live: Stocks to dip as Iran threatens US for ‘violating’ ceasefire

Good morning and welcome back to the City AM liveblog.

Global markets were able to take the new developments in the Middle East in their stride on Tuesday amid hopes a peace deal was on the horizon.

The FTSE 100 ended the day in the green and despite some choppy trading oil prices eased.

This came despite the US striking Iran in what it framed as “self-defence” in an attempt to hit “Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines”.

But that action may be set to cause further jitters today after Iran has fired back with a threat to the “terrorist” US army. It accused the US of a “blatant violation of the ceasefire” and promised to leave “no act of aggression unanswered”.

The nation’s supreme leader warned “America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East,” which echoes a previous sentiment from the regime in Tehran where it threatened war beyond the region,

The strikes from the US did come after President Donald Trump hinted that a ceasefire was near.

“[The] final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” he posted on Saturday.

But no announcement is yet to follow, despite Trump’s claims the Strait of Hormuz was set to be re-opened.

Some of the thornier issues in negotiations are understood to include Iran’s nuclear programme and its hesitation to guarantee unrestricted passage through Hormuz.

We’ll be bringing you all the latest on this and more.

Here’s a few of our top headlines this morning

    Octopus acquires legal team to boost bereavement services with AI

    Octopus Legacy, a bereavement service owned by Octopus Group, has acquired a private client team from a large UK-based law firm as part of a push to speed up its services using AI. 

    The company’s legal arm, Octopus Legal Services, has taken on a team of 50 legal professionals from NewLaw Solicitors in “a significant expansion into the full set of legal issues families face after a death” and will be rolling out AI for the team to use for admin tasks.

    “At the heart of the expansion is a deliberate use of artificial intelligence to fix the parts of the system that slow everything down,” Octopus Legacy said. 

    The company added that “rather than following the wave of businesses replacing client-facing teams with chatbots”, they are hiring the team to use AI to “unlock more human-to-human support, shorten timelines and provide a more joined-up experience for families.” 

    Octopus Legacy, which joined Octopus Group in 2022, offers probate services which help families manage the legal processes after a loved one dies. 

    The company said it expects the AI and legal team rollout to “increase its probate work tenfold within 12 months”, grow the headcount in its legal arm by a third, and “significantly increase Octopus Legacy’s share of the probate and estate administration market.”

    Octopus Legacy chief executive Sam Grice said that using AI will allow the company to “take responsibility for the whole experience, not pass people between services but own it from start to finish.” 

    “It [the AI] takes on the admin that slows everything down, so our team can spend more time with families, and every family can deal directly with a person at the point of death,” Grice said. 

    “At Octopus Energy, we saw what happens when a service is rebuilt around the customer rather than the system. The bereavement sector is at that same moment now, where a more joined-up model can replace one that no longer works,” Grice said. 

    The Octopus kingdom

    Octopus Group also owns Octopus Energy, which sits at the centre of the kingdom and was co-founded by chief executive Simon Rogerson in 2000. 

    The group offers a menu of services alongside the energy provider, including a major investment fund management service, a divorce platform, a financial planning service, and an education and care provider. 

    West Ham face exodus threat amid 50 per cent cut to player wages

    West Ham’s players will be hit with a 50 per cent wage cut after their relegation from the Premier League was confirmed.

    City AM understands that a relegation decrease clause is written into all player contracts, a factor that will make retaining their star players difficult as the club attempts to rebuild a squad capable of winning promotion from the Championship at the first attempt.

    West Ham narrowly missed out on safety on the final day of the season, finishing on 39 points – the highest total for a relegated club in 15 years – and two from safety.

    West Ham captain Jarrod Bowen will be one of the most sought-after players, though the 29-year-old forward hinted after the final game of the season on Sunday that he may stay. He signed a seven-year contract in 2023 – on around £150,000 per week – that runs until 2030.

    Midfielder Mateus Fernandes is attracting interest from leading Premier League sides but is also under contract until 2030. Crysencio Summerville excelled in the second half of the season, scoring seven goals in 18 games, and is valued at around £30m.

    It is a challenging landscape to navigate for a club that posted losses upwards of £100m in their latest accounts. West Ham will do so without Baroness Karren Brady, the vice-chair who stepped down in April after 16 years at the club.

    German spy school

    With Southampton manager Tonda Eckert facing a Football Association charge for his significant role in the “Spygate” saga that gripped the Championship play-offs, it raises the question of where he learnt the practice.

    Spying is viewed differently across Europe: in the UK it is a serious offence that can warrant expulsion from a competition – as Southampton discovered – while in Germany it is far more commonplace and accepted.

    Eckert admitted to the independent EFL panel overseeing the case that he “specifically authorised the observations”, according to the subsequent written reasons.

    Scan the 33-year-old’s CV and it shows that he was assistant coach at Cologne’s Under 17s from 2013 to 2016, when he was in his early 20s. During that period, Cologne were accused by Hamburg of sending a spy – pretending to be a journalist – to a January training camp in Dubai ahead of a match.

    The scout attended an interview with the Hamburg chief executive and even booked into the team hotel before being rumbled.

    Did this episode influence a young Eckert to develop a widespread practice – Southampton admitted to spying on Oxford United and Ipswich, as well as Middlesbrough – that has now landed him such trouble?

    The FA is investigating and, unlike the EFL, has powers to punish the individuals involved.

    $1m VIP UFC tickets

    When the White House lawns are taken over by a temporary UFC arena next month, most of the tickets will be given away to military personnel. But City AM has been told that event organisers are attempting to sell VIP tickets for upwards of $1m.

    The special tickets will grant access to the post-fight press conferences, the weigh-ins, a welcome reception and premium seating.

    The event – the first of its kind – is called UFC Freedom 250, held to mark President Trump’s 80th birthday that day and the 250th anniversary of American independence.

    On the six-fight card is the UFC lightweight title unification bout between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje, while Alex Pereira will attempt to become the first UFC fighter to win titles in three weight classes when he faces Ciryl Gane.

    A 4,500-seat arena will be built on the South Lawn, with a UFC Octagon cage at its centre and big screens around the perimeter. They are also giving tickets away to the general public to watch from the expansive parkland behind the White House.

    The UFC Freedom 250 website describes it as the “most historic sporting event of all time”.

    Fan votes for all?

    Football fans are growing tired of having no input into dramatic alterations to the sport they love – and are preparing to take action next month.

    At the Football Supporters’ Association AGM on 6 June, members will vote on mandating the organisation to lobby competition organisers to force clubs to consult fans before voting on structural changes.

    The motion – proposed by Charlton Athletic Supporters’ Trust and seconded by their counterparts at Millwall – comes in response to changes to the Championship play-offs announced this year. From next season, six teams – rather than four – will qualify for the post-season.

    Teams finishing third and fourth will automatically qualify for the semi-finals, while those finishing fifth through to eighth will play one-off ties to join them.

    The EFL insists the changes will strengthen the competition. But while the change was voted through, opponents argue they are unnecessary and are concerned it will encourage more clubs to gamble financially.

    A wider fan disillusionment has lingered in the aftermath of the failed European Super League project. In the Premier League, clubs are now mandated to have a Fan Advisory Board and to consult it on decisions. But some involved feel these bodies have become a box-ticking exercise with little influence.

    15m workers not ‘sufficiently’ saving for retirement, says top pensions chief

    Tens of millions of working people will face a crisis in retirement with the current automatic salary contribution “no longer sufficient,” the boss of one of the UK’s largest pension providers has warned.

    Around 15 million people are set to suffer in retirement as workers use their automatic eight per cent auto-enrolment pension contribution as a ceiling rather than a foundation on which to build.

    Writing in today’s City AM, Standard Life chief executive Andy Briggs said the forthcoming Pension Commission must lead to “radical change and meaningful action”.

    “If this doesn’t happen then millions of people will have poorer retirements, burden on the state will increase and the UK economy will be weaker”.

    The Pensions Commission is set to publish its final report and recommendations for industry reform, which will outline the legislative road map for decades to come, in the next year following a period of consulting with the public, employers, and industry.

    Briggs – who was City Champion of the Year at the City AM Awards – said he remains “optimistic” that the findings of the report will conclude that “auto-enrolment contributions set at eight per cent are no longer sufficient”.

    Pensions warning bombshell

    The warnings come on the heels of the Pensions Commission’s sobering Interim Report last week, which paints a stark picture of workers living in a false sense of security.

    While the 2012 automatic enrolment initiative successfully brought millions of new savers into the fold, fresh data revealed that a third of all private-sector employees are now saving only the bare minimum required by law.

    This flaw is amplified by strict eligibility criteria that legally locks out an estimated four million part-time and low-earning individuals from automatic enrolment entirely.

    The report highlighted a blind spot for the self-employed economy, revealing that a mere four per cent of workers are actively saving for their later years.

    Briggs has been a vocal critic of some of the pensions reforms announced by Rachel Reeves in the last year. Following the shake up of salary sacrifice from 2029 revealed in last year’s Autumn Budget, Briggs told City AM it could lead to “people saving less”.

    Andy Briggs: UK is hurtling towards a pensions disaster

    Without radical change, Britain will find itself amidst a pensions disaster, with millions worse off, writes Standard Life chief executive Andy Briggs

    When the Pension Commission issues its final report in 2027, it must lead to radical change and meaningful action. If this doesn’t happen then millions of people will have poorer retirements, burden on the state will increase and the UK economy will be weaker.

    The interim report from the Commission is in line with what Standard Life has been highlighting and talking about for many years. Large numbers of people are not saving enough for retirement and the UK is hurtling towards a pensions adequacy disaster. The report showed that 15m working-age people are not going to have enough money in retirement. Without action this will not change.

    Auto-enrolment should be hiked to 12 per cent

    We remain optimistic that when the commission returns with its findings it will conclude that auto-enrolment contributions set at eight per cent are no longer sufficient. In many cases what was supposed to be a minimum has become the norm, and the level of personal saving envisaged when the system was established has not materialised.

    Auto-enrolment has brought millions more workers into regular pension saving since 2012. However, under-saving is projected to be the highest among people reaching retirement age in the 2030s and 2040s. The UK has replacement rates (the proportion of pre-retirement income you receive in retirement) below the OECD average and the weakest in the G7.

    While change cannot happen overnight, we should be setting a clear path towards increasing contribution rates to 12 per cent gradually over time. This could be at an increase of 0.5 per cent each time or one per cent, with a mechanism to delay rises in the event of severe economic turmoil. This needs to be implemented sooner rather than later. Delays will only make this problem worse for the customers and state.

    Financial pressures on businesses and households remain throughout the UK so, to implement any change, a roadmap of gradual change is needed to address the growing problem. We need to get things moving. This will help business and savers plan.

    UK is an outlier when it comes to pensions consolidation

    The report last week also touches on consolidation and this is something else that needs to change in Britain.

    The UK is an outlier among advanced economies in retaining a highly fragmented defined contribution landscape. Consolidation improves member outcomes and is not just a focus for system efficiency. It is about unlocking capability and larger schemes can invest more and support bigger infrastructure projects more effectively across the UK. They can provide capital to growing companies while still meeting the primary duty to customers to ensure they get the returns they need. Smaller schemes cannot do this consistently, scale is a prerequisite for investing in growth assets such as infrastructure, private capital and productive finance.

    Global evidence from more than 1,000 pension plans over a 30 year period shows that customers and savers benefit with better outcomes from larger schemes. Australia’s Productivity Commission estimated that a lack of scale and system fragmentation cost pension members in Australia around $3.8bn every year in lower returns and unnecessary fees.

    UK must catch up quickly

    Consolidation will help customers and the economy. Savers and societies in a number of different nations have benefitted from this. Canada has grown into one of the most sophisticated and bigger long-term investors across the globe. The top five Australian “Superfunds” are now worth more than $1.2 trillion AUD, they have shown stronger governance and better performance since moving to a system with fewer but larger funds. The Dutch in recent years have reduced the number of pension funds from 1,000 to 200 and concentrated on assets in large schemes. The International Monetary Fund now describes the system in the Netherlands as one of the strongest worldwide and explicitly links outcomes to scale, consolidation and investment sophistication.

    The UK has a lot of catching up to do with other advanced economies by retaining a highly fragmented DC landscape and a relatively low minimum contribution rate. Changes need to happen with urgency and at a much faster pace. The longer we wait, the harder and more costly this issue becomes to fix.

    Andy Briggs is the chief executive of Standard Life

    Corlytics Sharpens Leadership for Next Phase of Growth

    Corlytics, the Verdane-backed regulatory intelligence firm, has appointed Lisa Miles-Heal as Chief Executive Officer, effective June. The appointment marks the beginning of a new phase for a business that has established itself as the global authority in regulatory risk and is now firmly focused on scaling that position into sustained commercial leadership.

    This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260526471725/en/

    New CEO Lisa Miles-Heal & Founder John Byrne

    Miles-Heal has a strong track record of building and growing technology-led businesses, with nearly two decades of experience in executive roles. Most recently, she oversaw the transition of accounting compliance leader Silverfin from Founder led to an award-winning Visma group company.

    Miles-Heal commented: “Growing local champion technology businesses from smaller markets like Belgium and New Zealand into international success stories is something I’ve done before, and I see the same potential here. Corlytics wins against slightly larger competitors by being better at what customers truly value – technology that solves hard problems, uncompromising quality and solution connectedness. The technology is proven, the client relationships are deep, and the market wants sophisticated AI enabled compliance solutions more than ever before. Working with our talented teams across the globe I’ll be making sure we capitalise on every bit of that.”

    A continuity of vision

    John Byrne, who founded Corlytics in 2013, remains in the executive team focused on accelerating the company’s product leadership. Widely credited as one of the architects of the modern RegTech category, Byrne has led Corlytics for 13 years from an Irish startup to most recently earning recognition as Category Leader in the 2025 Chartis RiskTech Quadrant for Regulatory Intelligence Solutions.

    Miles-Heal’s role will focus on driving commercial scale and growth; with Byrne directing his energy toward the area where he has always had the greatest impact, building technology that stays ahead of the market. Byrne added, ‘This transition may come to be seen not simply as a handover, but as the moment Corlytics moved from category leader to enduring market force.’

    Building on excellence

    Corlytics today serves 40% of the world’s top 30 systemically important financial institutions, and its platform has been trusted by regulators as well as the firms they oversee – including a programme with the FCA to develop the world’s first intelligent regulatory handbook, and a subsequent engagement with FINRA in the United States.

    The company was also the first RegTech to achieve ISO 42001 certification, aligning its platform with the EU AI Act, the US NIST framework, and OECD principles, reflecting the governance rigour its clients require.

    Miles-Heal’s priorities will include deepening the customer value from Corlytics’ extensive regulatory data assets, leveraging AI across all company operations, and targeting further major wins in the risk and controls space as the company brings new, innovative products to market.

    Nils Vold, Partner at Verdane commented: “This transition is a natural evolution for a business that’s ready to scale, and we’re confident that Lisa is exactly the right person to lead that next phase. Her track record of growing technology businesses across international markets speaks for itself and we’re excited about what this team is going to achieve together. Corlytics has always been a flagship investment for us, and a big part of that is down to John. What he’s built at Corlytics is something we’re incredibly proud to have supported.”

    About Corlytics

    Corlytics is the regulatory technology partner of choice for Tier 1 banks, insurers and financial services providers worldwide. Its precision FIUI (Find, Interpret, Understand, Implement) regulatory technology is reshaping compliance by embedding intelligence directly into regulatory content. With over €50 million invested in R&D, Corlytics leads with a vision to transform how society’s most crucial organisations manage regulatory risk with smarter, accurate and connected technology.

    More information is available at www.corlytics.com.

    Lisa Miles-Heal, newly appointed CEO of Corlytics, poses confidently, symbolizing leadership and growth.

    Contact

    Emma Weeks
    Milk & Honey PR
    07494 492419
    emma@milkandhoneypr.com

    Abstract

    Corlytics sharpens its leadership for next phase of growth. Internationally experienced leader Lisa Miles-Heal is appointed Chief Executive Officer.

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    Corlytics wins against slightly larger competitors by being better at what customers truly value – technology that solves hard problems, uncompromising quality and solution connectedness.

    New CEO Lisa Miles-Heal & Founder John Byrne
    New CEO Lisa Miles-Heal & Founder John Byrne

    Crude language is the least of BP’s Manifold problems

    Yesterday saw the ousting of BP chair Albert Manifold after less than one year in the role. According to various media reports, Manifold was “shouty” and “aggressive”, with a “volcanic temper”.

    But try as it might to escape crude language, BP’s board may soon suffer similar missives from its shareholders after another c-suite scandal left the company’s stock in the doldrums, shedding £4bn from its market cap in minutes.

    Execs at the top of BP seem to have an even shorter tenure than recent prime ministers, and that’s saying something. The oil major is now on its fourth chief executive since the beginning of 2020.

    The second of the two, Brendan Looney, was thrown out in 2023 over undisclosed “relationships” with colleagues. His successor, Murray Auchinchloss, who was equally familiar with office friendships, survived for little more than a year, though he was sacked for different reasons.

    While by most accounts the latest chief, Meg O’Neill, is settling in well, it’s instead the turn of the chairman, Manifold, to face defenestration after taking up his role only months ago. Known as a no-nonsense boss when he ran construction materials firm CRH, the Irish exec’s tone was a little too curt for some.

    Shareholder unease

    “His impact was necessarily limited by the short period of time being in the role,” as one City analyst put it yesterday in one of the more brutal corporate obituaries we’ve seen.

    The mess comes just weeks after BP suffered a rare double defeat on resolutions it put forward at its AGM, one on scrapping in-person shareholder meetings, and another on watering down its climate reporting requirements. Manifold himself did not escape scrutiny with a fifth of investors voting against his re-election as chair.

    The energy giant finds itself caught between investors who want it to double down on oil while the going’s good and those adamant that it should take a longer-term view on energy sources.

    Its shares have seriously underperformed that of rival Shell over the past five years, which at one point was rumoured to be weighing snapping it up on the cheap. Though the stock began to gather momentum earlier this year, with Manifold’s turnaround efforts thought to have shown early positive signs.

    Aside from strengthening its hiring due diligence practices, what the company desperately needs is a chairman who can square the circle and set a clear vision that unites shareholders across the spectrum. Manifold gave it a good go, but clearly the board wants someone to do it in gentler tones.

    The Debate: Is Britain’s minimum wage too high?

    Rishi Sunak has confessed minimum wage hikes he oversaw were too high. But is raising wages during a cost of living crisis really so bad? We hear both sides of the argument in this week’s debate

    YES: Successive governments have used the minimum wage to get good headlines

    Econ 101 states: don’t be surprised that when you raise the price of something, demand goes down. Britain’s national living wage is the highest in the G7 in absolute terms. It has risen by almost a third in real terms over the past decade. Since Labour has been in government the minimum wage for 19-year-olds has increased by 26 per cent – way above inflation. Now the bills associated with Labour’s policy choices are starting to add up.

    Retail and hospitality account for a third of all minimum wage jobs and nearly half of all employment for under-25s. Both sectors are leading the fall in vacancies and payroll numbers. They are withdrawing from the market. Youth unemployment is at an 11-year high, 16.2 per cent. For the first time, Britain has a higher youth unemployment rate than the EU average. And yet, nobody is questioning the policies creating this.

    The minimum wage was designed as a floor. Successive governments turned it into a ratchet: easy headlines about giving Britain a pay rise, with the trade-off buried. But trade-offs do not disappear because politicians ignore them. The effects are clear as day. For every £25 spent on young people on benefits, £1 is spent on getting them back into work. When it costs the same to hire an 18-year-old with no experience as a 30-year-old with a decade behind the till, businesses make the rational choice. 

    The solution: freeze the rates. Restore a meaningful youth differential so that hiring a teenager is not the same gamble as hiring someone with experience. Stop treating the minimum wage in isolation: stacked on top of the employer NI rise and the Employment Rights Act, it is part of a cumulative cost shock that is pricing the youngest and least experienced out of the labour market.

    Joanna Marchong is head of communications at the Adam Smith Institute 

    NO: Reducing the wage amid a cost of living crisis would be a disaster for low-paid workers

    The minimum wage is one of a rare breed in modern Britain: a genuine economic policy success from the last 30 years. When it was introduced, more than a fifth of workers were stuck in low pay after two decades of worsening pay inequality. By its 25th birthday it had set pay inequality into reverse, boosted the pay of the nation’s lowest-paid workers by £6,000 a year, and reduced the number of workers in low-paying jobs.


    When Tony Blair committed to follow other advanced economies by introducing a statutory minimum wage, he declared it was “merely the due claim of civilisation”. It is still a vital instrument of social protection, maintaining the living standards of the UK’s lowest-paid workers. With prices rising and another cost of living squeeze hitting households, this protection remains essential.

    Of course, there are trade-offs. Businesses are feeling the squeeze of rising costs and minimum wage hikes have added to these pressures. A business owner anticipating tighter margins may feel forced to cut back on shifts or delay hiring plans. These decisions also impact workers’ incomes, and younger workers are often the first to suffer from a hiring squeeze.

    The minimum wage must be set with these trade-offs in mind. The policy’s broad aim – to keep pay for low earners in line with the rest of the working population – is right. Raising the rate too quickly may prevent businesses from hiring, and ministers should be mindful of this risk. But under no circumstances should they seek to lower the rate. This would be a disaster for low-paid workers when they can least afford another hit to their living standards.

    Joseph Evans is a research fellow at IPPR

    THE VERDICT

    Raising pay for the poorest workers – who could object to that? Quite. Such is why it’s been so attractive a lever for Prime Ministers to pull, but not without cost – as former PM Rishi Sunak himself this week admitted. In an enlightening column for The Sunday Times, Sunak, who oversaw a 9.7 per cent increase in the National Living Wage, said he regretted not being “braver” when in office: “I decided that for a multimillionaire chancellor to overrule the Low Pay Commission without any covering fire wasn’t politically sensible.” It may, however, have been economically so.

    As employment expert James Reed has pointed out in these pages, the cost of hiring a 21-year-old working 40 hours a week, wages and taxes included, is now at least £29,654, an increase of over 70 per cent in the last five years. It’s hard for anyone to argue that is sustainable. Should we cut the minimum wage now? Not quite (it is hard to take back what one has given). But ministers would do well to stop treating hikes as political, rather than actual, currency.