WAS THE PUBLIC PURSE IN GOOD SHAPE LAST MONTH?
VICKY REDWOOD | CAPITAL ECON
January is the biggest month for tax receipts, which have recently been a bit disappointing. Accordingly, we expect a slightly smaller public sector surplus than last year, of around £4bn. But there is uncertainty as this will be the first time that January’s self assessment receipts are affected by the new 50p rate of income tax.
PHILIP RUSH | NOMURA
We forecast a moderation in the pace of improvement in January, with a surplus of £6.3bn excluding financial interventions and £9.1bn including them. This is generated by income tax receipts, which are strong in Januarys. Some other receipts, like VAT, seem too strong to be sustained, hence the moderation.
HOWARD ARCHER | IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT
We forecast a net repayment of £8bn in January (excluding interventions) compared to a net repayment of £5.2bn in January 2011. However, it seems inevitable that the public finances will be increasingly pressurised over the coming months by muted economic activity eating into tax revenues and pushing up unemployment benefit claims.