Two thirds of Brits want tax-raising Reeves to resign
The latest City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll will make difficult for the Chancellor, says Matthew Lesh
Last week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves played with fire. In what was officially titled a “scene setter” speech ahead of the Budget, she tried to soften the ground for tax rises. After committing to not come back for more after last year’s fiasco, Reeves’ is now attempting to blame global headwinds, higher debt costs, the inherited legacy from the Tories and even Brexit.
There’s just one big problem for the government’s strategy: the public ain’t buying it.
According to the latest City AM / Freshwater Strategy Poll, voters are much clearer on who they think is to blame for tax rises. When given a choice, a clear majority (57 per cent) say raising taxes shows the current government’s failure to manage public finances and the economy properly – while just over one-third (35 per cent) think that tax rises are necessary to fix long-term problems and protect public services. When given more options, voters are still blaming the current government (40 per cent) rather than the previous Conservative government (14 per cent), debt-interest payments (12 per cent), or tariffs (eight per cent) for tax rises. And just eight per cent buy the government’s latest attempt to blame Brexit.
The public mood is now in favour of tax cuts, even if that means less government spending on public services (57 per cent) rather than tax rises to enable more public spending (31 per cent)
The Chancellor should be even more concerned for her personal position. Two-thirds of voters (66 per cent) think that Reeves’ should resign if the Budget raises income tax in this month’s Budget breaking Labour’s manifesto promise not to do so. A majority (56 per cent) believe the Budget will worsen the economy and their personal finances (59 per cent). At its core, the government is pushing against public sentiment regarding the role of the state. The public mood is now in favour of tax cuts, even if that means less government spending on public services (57 per cent) rather than tax rises to enable more public spending (31 per cent).
Taken together, this month’s budget could spell the beginning of the end for a struggling government: the turning of what was already a perilous situation into a terminal, unresolvable political death spiral.
Plots
There’s already growing media speculation about plots to remove Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and once those articles begin appearing, they tend to create their own momentum. It will be challenging to justify retaining a leader who has now reached a net approval rating of -45, down five points in just a month and the lowest since we began polling. It is hard to see how the government will be able to turn things around, particularly if the higher taxes further weaken the economy.
Labour’s political position remains perilous, down another three points this month to just 17 per cent among voters. Reform’s rise may have slowed, down three points to 32 per cent, but they still have a commanding lead, including over the Conservative Party (19 per cent, up one point) and the Liberal Democrats (13 per cent, no change). The emerging political upset is the Green Party, which has jumped up five points this month to 13 per cent, after changing its leader to left populist Zac Polanski. Nevertheless, on these numbers, a uniform national swing would give Reform an extraordinary 415 parliamentary constituencies and Labour just 61.
We are in distinctively uncharted waters. It was always thought that the two traditional major parties were unassailable, particularly in a first-past-the-post voting system. However, they are now together, backed by just 36 per cent of the public nationally. Frustrations are leading to a rapid political realignment. Last month’s Caerphilly by-election for the Welsh assembly saw Labour lose an area they have held for over 100 years – with the vote split between victors Plaid Cymru (47 per cent), and Reform (36 per cent), with the Labour and Tories combined vote reaching just 13 per cent. Tactical voting in a seven-plus party voting system is likely to result in volatile and unpredictable outcomes.
While Green and Reform voters are generally political opposites – the former tend to be younger, degree-educated, from cities like London and on the economic left and culturally highly progressive, compared to Reform supporters who tend to be older, more working class, rural and conservative. But they both, according to our polling, do share at least some sentiments. We find Reform and Green supporters firmly believe that Britian today is not a country that rewards hard work.
This month’s budget could be an opportunity to reset the narrative, to pursue policies that will grow the economy and remake Britian as a nation that actually works. Blaming someone else for our nation’s woes clearly isn’t working for the government; taking responsibility could help. More likely than not, however, unpopular and harmful tax rises are on the cards – further toxifying our politics and national mood.
Matthew Lesh is Country Manager at Freshwater Strategy