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By: Matthew Lesh

Matthew Lesh is Country Manager at Freshwater Strategy and a Public Policy Fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs

All 42 Articles
  • Burnham may have already missed his best chance to call an early election

    Opinion

    Andy Burnham has ruled out an early election but new polling from City AM and Freshwater Strategy suggests the electoral calculus may be shifting, says Matthew Lesh A few months ago, the idea of Andy Burnham rushing to the polls seemed mad. The current term still has almost three years left, Labour has a large [...]

    Andy Burnham speaks at Golders Green care home visit, September 2026, engaging with attendees.
  • The Conservative Party is losing voters on legacy, not leadership

    Opinion

    On the reasons to not vote Conservative, very few blame Kemi. Instead, legacy, and earning back trust, remains the Tories' biggest obstacle.

    Kemi Badenoch in a light blue suit, seated, speaking at the Conservative Party Conference 2026.
  • Reform’s funding scandal is scaring away the very voters it should be appealing to

    Opinion

    A row over unlawful donations to Reform UK is getting extraordinary cut-through with voters, and it’s former Conservatives, the very people Farage is best placed to win over, who are most sceptical, says Matthew Lesh Reform’s jamboree in Birmingham last week had a weird feel. Thousands of party faithful trampled across the hundreds of square [...]

    Nigel Farage in a light blue suit and red polka-dot tie, speaking at the Reform conference
  • The Burnham bounce won’t last unless Brits get better off

    August 12, 2026

    Andy Burnham’s approval ratings are soaring but Labour’s overall vote has only moved moderately. The real test will be the Budget, says Matthew Lesh Andy Burnham has undoubtedly had a significantly stronger start to his premiership than Keir Starmer. Just two years ago, the government got off to a rotten beginning by signalling tax rises [...]

  • Starmer’s social media restrictions will mean the government can spy on every phone

    June 9, 2026

    In practice, the government is demanding that Apple install on-device AI nudity-detection software at the operating system level for iOS and that Google do the same for Android. This would involve constantly scanning the camera viewfinder, screen output, livestream, and stored files, and blocking or blurring nudity in real time. This amounts to surveillance technology on [...]

  • Labour may not agree with Blair, but the public does…

    June 2, 2026

    This month’s City AM / Freshwater Strategy Poll reveals that the public is largely on the side of the former Prime Minister rather than Keir Starmer or his potential heirs when it comes to welfare, energy costs and growth, says Matthew Lesh Love him or, like many others, absolutely detest his guts, it’s hard to avoid the [...]

  • Local elections were a death knell for two-party politics

    May 12, 2026

    An era is distinctively over, but what takes its place, both in terms of who will lead the country and in the direction they will take, is far from clear, says Matthew Lesh “The old world is dying,” the Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci said, “and the new world struggles to be born.”  Last week was [...]

  • Historians won’t care about Starmer’s international diplomacy

    April 15, 2026

    When future historians explain why Keir Starmer's premiership fell apart, they'll look at domestic issues, not international diplomacy.

  • Starmer is being squeezed from all directions

    March 3, 2026

    Labour and the Conservatives have lost public trust and are being challenged by insurgents on both the left and the right, new polling shows, says Matthew Lesh Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right. Here’s Keir Starmer – stuck in the middle, losing you.  The catastrophic defeat of the government by the [...]

  • Starmer in dire straits as British voters pessimistic on almost every issue

    January 15, 2026

    Leaders rarely fail because of a single decision. Starmer's problem is that voters are pessimistic on almost every major measure.

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