The cabinet’s winners and losers
WINNER | MICHAEL GOVE
WINNER | ANDREW LANSLEY
LOSER | VINCE CABLE
LOSER | THERESA MAY
ANALYSIS
Education: After Health and Overseas Aid, Education has got the best settlement, with cuts of just three per cent. The schools budget will increase in real terms from £35bn to £39bn. The capital budget, which was allocated to the mammoth Building Schools for the Future programme, has been slashed, although Michael Gove thinks this is a good way of saving money. It’s not all good news, however. The non-schools budget will be cut by 12 per cent, meaning pain for sixth-forms and colleges. The grant given to poorer sixth-formers will be scrapped while Sure Start nurseries will only be protected in cash terms, suggesting cuts of around 10 per cent.
Health: Health is one of the only departments that will see real-terms increases over the parliament. However, hospitals will still feel the pinch: £1bn will be diverted to social care; and an ageing population will put more strain on the NHS.
Transport: One of the most-keenly felt consequences of the Transport settlement will be massive increase in rail fares, which are currently capped at RPI + 1 per cent. A new measure of RPI + 3 per cent from 2012 would see fares increase by 7.8 per cent a year based on current RPI. The Dartford Crossing will also soar from £1.50 to £2.50 in 2012 while bus subsidies will be cut by 20 per cent. This means cuts in capital spending won’t be as bad as feared: Crossrail will go ahead, as will the upgrade of London Underground and various rail projects.
Local Government: The future Communities department will be a shadow of its former self. The 55 per cent cut includes £1.6bn of funding which is being devolved to local councils, but they are still very steep.
Business Innovation and Skills: Funding for higher education will be cut by 40 per cent, to be replaced by a massive increase in student tuition fees. The government will only fund degrees in science, technology, engineering and maths. Newer universities will likely have to close or downsize considerably. Higher education saving will deliver around 65 per cent of total savings. The science budget will be protected in cash terms, while some key capital projects will be saved. But these are mainly sops for Vince Cable, who now has to preside over the biggest rise in tuition fees in history – despite campaigning against such a move before the election.
Home Office: The coalition has managed to protect schools and health, but the police service will pay the price. Central government funding for police will be slashed by a fifth, meaning big reductions in headcount. An increase in the amount local police services can levy on council tax will soften these to cuts of 14 per cent, but police are still one of the biggest losers.
Justice: Prisons are full and, due to huge cuts in capital spending, no new ones will be build in this parliament. That means the number of prisoners will be around 3,000 lower than it is today by 2014-15. Dangerous and serious offenders will be locked up but more criminals will be punished with community penalties. Legal aid will be cut by £350m. Although the department has lost out, Ken Clarke – a liberal proponent of penal reform – is likely to be happy with his settlement.
Defence: The details of Liam Fox’s settlement were announced earlier in the week. He is definitely one of the winners and fought a hard fight against the Treasury, one which could end up hurting his political career further down the line.
Foreign Office: As one of the smallest spending departments, Hague has secured a pretty good settlement. From 2014-15, the BBC will be forced to fund the World Service. Once that is taken into account, the rest of the FCO budget will fall by 10 per cent over the period.
Innovation Development: By far the biggest winner in terms of percentage increase, the government has kept its pledge to increase overseas aid.
Environment: The number of agricultural bodies will be reduced by 50 per cent.
Culture: The Olympics budget will be protected while cuts for grant-funded museums and arts organisations will be limited to 15 per cent. That means swingeing cuts for others: 30 per cent cuts for Sport England, UK Sport, English Heritage and Visit Britain.
Energy: Although Huhne has agreed a big cut to departmental spending, his capital budget has soared: there is £1bn for a carbon capture plant; £860m for a renewable energy incentive scheme; and £200m for low carbon technologies.
Welfare: It is misleading to look at Iain Duncan-Smith’s departmental budget, as most of his spending is on welfare, which is annually managed expenditure. He has won an increase in departmental spending to help administer his landmark policy: a Universal Credit to replace all other out of work and low income benefits. However, there have been huge cuts to welfare to help pay for this.