Take Safin to start well, but be Fed up
It’s easy to predict that Roger Federer will beat Marat Safin in the Wimbledon semi-final today, and is all set to clash with Rafa Nadal in the final.
But there might still be some value out there if you look for it.
Looking at the semi-final between Federer and Russian maverick Safin, better have an interesting market on the number of games to be played.
They offer you 10/3 that there will be between 32 and 35 games. If you think there’ll be more than 35 games, it’s 5/4, and if you think there will be less than 32 games it’s 6/5.
So, if you go for Federer to win in straight sets, it’s bound to be under 32 as a 6/4, 6/4, 6/4 win is 30 games… and if Federer, below, is already two sets up, then Safin won’t bother winning four games in the last set either.
But if, like me, you think Safin might snatch an early set, possibly on a tie-break, we are looking at the 5/4 for over 35 games. Even if it’s straight sets, Safin is capable of holding his serve early on and could push to a couple of tie-breaks. And if you fancy Safin to sneak a set only to capitulate, then form an orderly queue at better for their massive price of 28/1.
Federer looked superb beating Mario Ancic, and said: “When you go through a match like that, not having to save a break point and the other guy has to work extremely hard to win his service games, you know you’re in a good and comfortable position. There will always be tough opponents, dangerous opponents. But I found a way to win always.”
Is Safin such a dangerous opponent? The former world No.1 and two-time Grand Slam champion, who has slumped to 75th in the rankings, stunned Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic in straight sets in the second round – and has then needed four sets in every game to reach the semi-finals.
“I’m playing in the semi-final, but it doesn’t mean I have a chance,” he said. “He’s on his way to his sixth title. To beat Federer you have to be like (Rafael) Nadal and run around like a rabbit and hit winners from all over the place.
“I think it’s just a little bit too difficult for me to beat him.”
Maybe. But he could take a set, and most probably the first. Taking the number of games played bet should be fun, but the gamblers amongst us might fancy the 7/1 you can get with Ladbrokes that Federer will lose the first set, but win the match.