Six Nations 2017: England heavy favourites to retain championship according to expert actuaries at QBE
UK voters will choose to remain in the EU. Hillary Clinton will crush Donald Trump to become US President. England will win the 2017 Six Nations.
Expert forecasters haven't had a vintage last 12 months, so perhaps England should be wary that they've been marked overwhelming favourites to retain the Six Nations Championship by expert actuaries at insurance firm QBE.
Actuaries who spend their day jobs predicting the likelihood of earth-shattering catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, have turned their attention to the bone-shaking clash of huge humans at the Six Nations.
Using a complex mathematical formula which is fed into a computer that simulates the tournament 10,000 times to produce outcomes from 150,000 games, England are given a 54 per cent likelihood of winning the tournament.
Ireland are a distant second with a 26 per cent chance of finishing as champions. Wales follow with 12 per cent, five-time winners France are given just six per cent, Scotland are given short shrift on a two per cent chance while the Conor O'Shea revolution at Italy is given absolutely has no chance of winning whatsoever.
Read more: Betting – England look to extend unbeaten run against old enemy France
England head coach Eddie Jones, who was sensationally compared to Trump by former British and Irish Lions coach Jim Telfer, will be hoping he is not rugby's equivalent of Clinton.
His team's first opportunity to live up to the billing comes against France at Twickenham on Saturday evening where they have been given a 82 per cent chance of winning by QBE, who expect the score to be 29 – 15 in favour of the home side.
"On a daily basis QBE applies science like that behind this model to different sectors such as transport, construction and financial services," said QBE director of UK and Ireland Matthew Crane.
"However, nothing is certain and predictions can be wrong as recent national and international events have shown. And that's the point. You can't predict with 100 per cent certainty, which is why risk management is an essential ingredient in business planning."