Service sector gains ease recession fears
Britain’s dominant services sector expanded at the fastest pace in 10 months in January and firms grew much more optimistic, a survey showed.
The surprise improvement in the sector follows PMI releases showing that manufacturing unexpectedly returned to growth last month, while construction firms became more upbeat despite a slower expansion in activity.
“All (this) points to a resounding revival of UK economic growth in January,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at survey compiler Markit.
“A slide back into recession is now looking increasingly unlikely. The economy could well expand at close to trend rate – around 2-2.5 percent per annum – in the first quarter if business conditions hold up in the next two months,” he added.
Britain’s economy shrank in the final quarter of 2011, as manufacturers and construction companies scaled back production. Another consecutive quarter of contraction would tip it into recession.
However, Markit’s forecast contrasts sharply with that from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) earlier on Friday, which forecast a 0.1 per cent drop in GDP for 2012 as a whole.
Most economists are convinced the BoE will approve another £50-75bn of QE, and several policymakers have said that falling inflation gives them scope to consider further purchases to boost sluggish growth.
Activity in the service sector increased above trend on the back of the strongest rise in new business since July, Markit said, noting evidence of improved confidence among clients.
Hotels, catering and restaurants, and personal services recorded the largest gains in activity.