DEBATE: Are this week’s UK growth figures anything to celebrate? Are this week’s UK growth figures anything to celebrate? Ruth Lea, economic adviser at the Arbuthnot Banking Group, says YES. The GDP data for the third quarter of 2019 was a tad weaker than expected, and much has been made of the growth rate being the weakest since the start of 2010. But the data [...]
DEBATE: Are the Operation Yellowhammer warnings about no-deal likely to be exaggerated? DEBATE: Are the Operation Yellowhammer warnings about no-deal exaggerated? Are the Operation Yellowhammer warnings about no-deal likely to be exaggerated? Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, says YES. The Yellowhammer warnings have a weary familiarity to them. As with Project Fear Mark 1, prior to the 2016 referendum, any possible negativities have been ramped up out of all proportion. In 2016, [...]
DEBATE: If Theresa May’s deal fails to pass, is another referendum the best way to break the stalemate? If Theresa May’s deal fails to pass, is another referendum the best way to break the stalemate? Jo Swinson MP, deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, says YES. Brexit has become a national embarrassment. In the last few weeks, the Conservative government has lost control in parliament, and the Labour frontbench – supposedly the official [...]
DEBATE: Can we stop worrying now that earnings are rising at their highest rate in a decade? December 12, 2018 Can we stop worrying now that earnings are rising at their highest rate in a decade? Michael Hayman MBE, co-founder of Seven Hills and co-author of Mission: How the Best in Business Break Through, says YES. May you live in interesting times – the old Chinese curse has found new life in Brexit Britain. Mired in [...]
DEBATE: Should Theresa May try to renegotiate her Brexit deal at the EU Summit this weekend? November 23, 2018 Should Theresa May try to renegotiate her Brexit deal at the EU Summit this weekend? Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, says YES. There is little doubt that the withdrawal agreement, including the egregious backstop and the backstop-based draft future relationship, would leave this country in the worst of all possible worlds if the [...]
As the Bank of England hikes its growth forecasts, is it time for economists to admit they were wrong about Brexit? February 3, 2017 Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, says Yes. The Bank of England was far too pessimistic in August when it slashed 2017’s forecast growth rate to 0.8 per cent and its accompanying monetary package was premature, to say the least. Unsurprisingly, therefore, it has since upgraded this year’s growth prospects twice: to [...]
With PMIs suggesting strong growth in the UK economy at the end of 2016, will it remain robust in 2017? January 6, 2017 Ruth Lea, economic adviser at Arbuthnot Banking Group, says Yes. The latest Markit survey results found that business activity picked up appreciably in December in all three sectors – manufacturing, construction and services, suggesting that growth remained buoyant in the final quarter. Moreover, I expect growth to remain fairly robust in 2017, at around 1.5 [...]
Following a year of major political change, will 2016 be regarded as a turning point in history? December 5, 2016 Ruth Lea, economic adviser at Arbuthnot Banking Group, says Yes. I have little doubt that 2016 will go down as a major turning point in British history, as indeed was 1973 when we joined the European Communities. Then Britain, racked by post-colonial self-doubt, chose to join Europe’s political project of “ever closer union”, with all [...]
With a leaked memo suggesting the government has no Brexit plan, should it delay invoking Article 50? November 15, 2016 Sarah Olney, Liberal Democrat by-election candidate for Richmond Park, says Yes. Yesterday’s leaked Brexit memo made it clear why Theresa May won’t tell us her plan for Brexit; because she doesn’t have one. Her government is failing to come up with clear answers on the most important issues, including Britain’s membership of the Single Market. [...]
With Theresa May expected to give it the green light, is Hinkley Point just a colossal white elephant? September 14, 2016 Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, says Yes. There is little doubt that we need more electricity generating capacity – and the sooner the better. So the government’s determination to expand capacity is welcome. But Hinkley Point is flawed. Putting aside security fears over Chinese finance behind the proposed EDF nuclear power plant, [...]
