Betfair: Get set for trading as the US election finally arrives Get set for the biggest night in political betting history. £300million has now been traded on Betfair’s Next President market, beating the all-time record, including sports, by more than 50%. That includes the largest ever single stake – £1m on Biden at 8/15. Even bigger action is yet to come. In 2016, £75m out of [...]
Betfair: What the markets look like days out from the US election Normally, around one week out from polling day, we would expect to see relatively close convergence between Betfair estimates and polling models. However there is nothing normal about either the Trump era or 2020. The two estimates have never converged during this cycle and the differential is more stark than ever. At odds of 1/2 [...]
Betfair: Closing stages of White House race offer plenty of uncertainty Betfair: Closing stages can see markets spook We are into the closing stretch. Record numbers of Americans have already voted. The final TV debate is done. It’s an opportune moment to recall 2016 – at this point, 11 days out, the Clinton email scandal resurfaced. The story usurped many scandals surrounding Trump and probably cost her the presidency. Come the crunch, the [...]
Betfair: Trump’s magnetism creates trading opportunities across the board October 21, 2020 The last frenetic week of election betting could be described as contrarian to conventional wisdom. Previously, with reference to Betfair Exchange’s database from previous elections, I noted how this year’s odds diverge wildly from both current polls and historic betting trends. The mismatch has become more stark than ever. Two weeks out, Biden’s 8/13 odds [...]
Is irrational exuberance skewing US election betting? October 16, 2020 It has been an extraordinary week on Betfair’s US election markets. An average of £3million traded per day, amounting to around 15% of the total matched since November 2016. That sharp rise in volume triggered two of the most rapid and substantial market moves seen all year – one for each candidate. By the end, [...]
Betfair: Why the 2020 election is most like Obama’s win in 2008 October 9, 2020 Joe Biden is trading around his lowest odds yet to win the 2020 US election following a sustained gamble. Going into the first debate, he and Donald Trump’s respective chances implied by Betfair Exchange odds stood at 56 per cent to 44%. Today they are 65 per cent and 35 per cent. A great deal, of course, has [...]
US Election Betting: There’s never been anyone like Trump September 25, 2020 Despite trading every major election since Betfair Exchange’s inception, I’ve never seen anything like Donald Trump versus Joe Biden. This will be the biggest ever betting event, surpassing the new records set at the 2016 EU referendum and US election. The betting starkly contrasts polls. Betfair Exchange odds imply a 54% chance for Biden, compared [...]
