Inflation post Covid-19: to be or not to be? May 26, 2020 | City Talk We spoke to two experts who argued the case for and against inflation in the near future and what it means for investments. Abdallah Guezour, Head of Emerging Market Debt and Commodities, and Keith Wade, Chief Economist, discuss the outlook for inflation in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis. Abdallah argues the case for inflation [...]
Johanna Kyrklund: It pays to be patient April 22, 2020 | City Talk As lockdown continues for millions of us across the world, unsure of when we will see loved ones or return to our places of work, we all know we must be patient. Good things come to those that wait, as they say. This seems to me to be true not only from a personal viewpoint, [...]
What impact is Covid-19 having on global economies and markets? March 31, 2020 | City Talk The impact of the new coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic continues to play out. The extent to which the virus will spread, both between and within countries remains unclear, and the duration and impact are highly uncertain. Sadly, the human impact continues to grow, and the virus has now claimed the lives of over 22,000 people, as [...]
Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession March 20, 2020 | City Talk The coronavirus is having a severe effect on global economic activity and amidst considerable uncertainty we have attempted to gauge the impact and updated our forecasts. We now expect to see the world economy contract this year by 3.1%, before rebounding by 7.2% in 2021. The forecast incorporates a severe recession in the first half [...]
Keith Wade: Is the world now heading for recession? March 13, 2020 | City Talk As I returned to the UK last weekend, my taxi driver talked of panic-buying and impending food shortages. Having wondered if I had stepped off at the wrong airport, it subsequently became clear that his thinking was very close to that of the markets. On Monday (9 March), equities sold off and credit spreads widened [...]
Over the last decade, central banks have gained huge influence over our lives November 4, 2019 Monetary policy, central bank independence, quantitative easing. These and many other subjects tend to make people’s eyes glaze over, and are best left to finance nerds to battle over in quiet corners. Yet central banks have, over the last decade, emerged from the shadows of arcane macroeconomic policy discussions to become fundamental to all our [...]
Economy on red alert with yield curve close to inversion August 16, 2019 | City Talk Both the US and UK yield curves are on the verge of inverting. The yield curve has been a reliable predictor of US recessions over the last four decades, less so in the UK. With only one exception, each time the yield curve has inverted, the US economy has entered a downturn within 18 months. [...]
Why the world economy is like a wobbly bike June 14, 2019 | City Talk Three months ago we said “the easing in US-China trade tensions, more flexible central banks and the benefits of lower oil prices should stabilise activity later this year and support an upgrade in our global growth forecast for 2020”. However, two of those supports have now fallen away and we are more reliant on looser [...]
Gold, the Federal Reserve, and the dollar – what’s driving up precious metal prices? March 19, 2019 Gold has been making a comeback. After a long period with little activity last year, the precious metal’s value has risen as stock markets have struggled and fallen. Combine the volatility of equities with the increase in geopolitical fears, and many investors are re-evaluating whether to increase the amount of gold in their portfolios. The [...]
What is the outlook for interest rates in 2019? February 5, 2019 | City Talk US Concern over the outlook for US interest rates was one of the dominant themes of 2018, especially as the year progressed. President Trump got involved in the debate, tweeting in December that it was “incredible” that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) was considering raising interest rates again. Despite the pressure from the president, the [...]