Is this popular measure of stock market value giving a misleading “sell” signal? February 25, 2019 | City Talk One of the most widely watched measures of stock market value, the cyclically-adjusted price to earnings ratio (CAPE), has been giving off a screaming “sell” signal for the US market in the past few years. Last year it rose to a level not seen in its almost 140 year history, other than during the peak [...]
A lesson for investors from the true life of Carlos Ghosn February 22, 2019 | City Talk Investors’ fondness for a good story is a theme we have often touched upon, here on The Value Perspective – though never in so literal a way as fortnightly Japanese manga magazine Big Comic Superior once managed. Back in 2001, it ran a comic strip chronicling the life of Carlos Ghosn, who rescued Nissan from [...]
Veteran City banker and billionaire Bruno Schroder dies aged 86 February 21, 2019 Bruno Schroder, the longest serving FTSE 100 board member and British banking veteran, has died aged 86. The billionaire, who served as a non-executive director of his family’s business Schroders for more than 50 years, died yesterday following a short illness, the company said. Read more: Lloyds and Schroders sign £80bn joint venture deal Schroder [...]
Schroders and Lloyds Banking Group to launch financial planning joint venture in June February 20, 2019 A multi-million pound joint venture between investment management firm Schroders and Lloyds Banking Group will launch in June this year, the companies confirmed today. Schroders Personal Wealth will initially be available to Lloyds private banking and Bank of Scotland private banking customers before opening to the wider market in the fourth quarter of 2019, subject [...]
Why investors should beware increasingly unforgiving debt markets February 20, 2019 | City Talk Last year may have been a tricky one for US markets and investors but it was less so for the country’s businesses – at least, that is, to judge by the headline numbers on US companies filing for bankruptcy. According to figures from BankruptcyData.com, 58 companies totalling $52bn (£40bn) of assets declared themselves bankrupt in [...]
Should investors be more concerned about China’s slowdown? February 18, 2019 The rise of China has been astonishing and its growing influence on the world is one of the economic forces discussed in our inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead. But economies don’t grow in a straight line. China is facing a transition period. It is a country we monitor closely and we believe its [...]
Busting the millennial myth February 11, 2019 | City Talk Last month I was invited to present at a conference in Berlin; I spent a couple of days preparing and got up at 4am to fly over. The speaker before me confidently told the audience that millennials lacked their elders’ work ethic so would drag down productivity and GDP growth. As I took to the [...]
Three themes for 2019 – and some black swans February 8, 2019 | City Talk 2018 was a challenging year for investors with US equity and government bond markets both returning less than cash. Two factors were instrumental in delivering this outcome: disappointment with global growth and less cash flowing through the global economy (tighter liquidity). These factors will continue to influence markets in the year ahead. We have identified [...]
The yield curve explained: is it predicting recession? February 6, 2019 | City Talk The yield curve has been a reliable predictor of US recessions over the last four decades. Each time the yield curve has inverted, the US economy has entered a downturn within 18 months. At the start of 2019, the curve is precipitously close to inverting again. The yield curve is the difference between the interest [...]
What is the outlook for interest rates in 2019? February 5, 2019 | City Talk US Concern over the outlook for US interest rates was one of the dominant themes of 2018, especially as the year progressed. President Trump got involved in the debate, tweeting in December that it was “incredible” that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) was considering raising interest rates again. Despite the pressure from the president, the [...]