Should investors be more concerned about China’s slowdown? February 18, 2019 The rise of China has been astonishing and its growing influence on the world is one of the economic forces discussed in our inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead. But economies don’t grow in a straight line. China is facing a transition period. It is a country we monitor closely and we believe its [...]
Busting the millennial myth February 11, 2019 | City Talk Last month I was invited to present at a conference in Berlin; I spent a couple of days preparing and got up at 4am to fly over. The speaker before me confidently told the audience that millennials lacked their elders’ work ethic so would drag down productivity and GDP growth. As I took to the [...]
Three themes for 2019 – and some black swans February 8, 2019 | City Talk 2018 was a challenging year for investors with US equity and government bond markets both returning less than cash. Two factors were instrumental in delivering this outcome: disappointment with global growth and less cash flowing through the global economy (tighter liquidity). These factors will continue to influence markets in the year ahead. We have identified [...]
The yield curve explained: is it predicting recession? February 6, 2019 | City Talk The yield curve has been a reliable predictor of US recessions over the last four decades. Each time the yield curve has inverted, the US economy has entered a downturn within 18 months. At the start of 2019, the curve is precipitously close to inverting again. The yield curve is the difference between the interest [...]
What is the outlook for interest rates in 2019? February 5, 2019 | City Talk US Concern over the outlook for US interest rates was one of the dominant themes of 2018, especially as the year progressed. President Trump got involved in the debate, tweeting in December that it was “incredible” that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) was considering raising interest rates again. Despite the pressure from the president, the [...]
Changing industry, changing skill-set January 25, 2019 | City Talk In the 1990s, the skill-set required by asset management professionals was vastly different. The investment universe consisted primarily of equities and bonds. Alternative asset classes like hedge funds and private equity were accessible only to high net worth individuals and some particularly sophisticated pension funds. Balanced managers were hired to outperform benchmarks, not produce outcomes. [...]
The stock markets that look ‘cheap’ at the start of 2019 January 18, 2019 | City Talk 2018 was a rumbustious year for stock markets, with things really coming to the fore in harrowing fashion in the latter stages. With investors having grown accustomed to an unusual oasis of calm over recent years, volatility was back with a bang. However, as the dust settles, there is a silver lining. Even before the [...]
How the FTSE 100 returned 94 per cent without moving January 14, 2019 | City Talk On New Year’s Eve 1999, the FTSE 100 closed at a then-record high of 6930. Few could have envisaged then that, 19 years on, the index would be lower. It stood at 6845 as at 14 December 2018. A negative return for investors over that long a period can be concerning, but it doesn’t tell [...]
Financial markets 2018: the year in review January 7, 2019 | City Talk After two years of steady growth in asset prices, 2018 proved more of a challenge for investors, particularly in the last three months of the year. US president Donald Trump’s tax cuts had provided an added boost for investors heading into 2018, and US GDP growth accelerated to 4.2 per cent on an annualised quarterly basis [...]
Amazon HQ2 – “Mr. Bezos, why didn’t you call?” January 2, 2019 | City Talk Amazon’s HQ2 search went live on 7th September 2017 and it selected the winning cities, New York and Washington, in November 2018. The Global Cities databases that we use to quantify our investments comprise exactly the data that Amazon needed to make its decision. It wasn’t just Mr Bezos’ time that was wasted. When Amazon [...]