ECB Headwinds, IMF downgrade for Europe – What Can We Expect from 2019? January 25, 2019 | City Talk This week bankers and leaders around the globe have come together for the World Economic Forum in Davos. A key topic has been what we can expect from 2019 and beyond, in the face of a global slowdown, climate change, the US shutdown, trade wars and Brexit. On top of that, the ECB revealed that [...]
Editor’s Notes: Davos – a festival of irrelevance and hypocrisy January 25, 2019 Davos brings the same delights every year. From the press release about the number of private jet movements to Oxfam’s annual criticism of the global super-rich, there are predictable elements to this week-long event. Another thing you can always be assured of is that some staggering hypocrisy will be on display. I came across a [...]
Despite apocalyptic Brexit warnings, the good news keeps on coming January 22, 2019 As the twists and turns of this long drawn-out Brexit drama continue, possibly the most surprising aspect of all is just how resilient the good news about UK business continues to be. I know this is tempting fate, I know many experts keep saying that the economic cycle suggests we should have had a recession [...]
Danske Bank faces shareholder action over money laundering scandal January 22, 2019 Danske Bank is facing shareholder action from investors seeking compensation over a €200bn (£175.6bn) money laundering scandal. IMF Litigation Funding Services, Njord Law and Quinn Emanuel allege that Denmark’s largest bank failed to disclose the scale of the crisis to investors, causing them to lose vast amounts of money. Read more: Danish minister says Danske Bank may [...]
Euro at 20: Time for ‘close and candid introspection’ rather than celebration January 1, 2019 The 20th anniversary of the euro should not be cause for celebration but for “close and candid” introspection. European Central Bank president Mario Draghi admitted he was a biased observer when proclaiming the euro had been a success ahead of its 20th birthday yesterday. But he stopped short of celebrating and said the anniversary was [...]
America’s call to kick China out of the WTO is in no one’s interest November 26, 2018 China has “misbehaved” when it comes to global trade. That’s according to one of Donald Trump’s key economic advisers, who suggested last week that China should be evicted from the World Trade Organisation (WTO). It’s a clever move from the US administration, which conflates its dissatisfaction with multilateralism with the President’s putative trade war. If you [...]
Central banks could issue state-backed digital currencies, says IMF November 14, 2018 Central banks could issue digital currency, International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Christine Lagarde said today. Speaking at an event in Singapore, Lagarde mooted a state-backed digital token, or an account held at the central bank for consumers and firms to use for retail payments. As the demand for cashless payments increases, digital currency could provide security [...]
Italy rejects EU calls to amend budget ahead of deadline November 13, 2018 Italy defied a European Commission deadline to submit a revised budget tonight, telling the EU it will not change its expansive fiscal plans. Ahead of a midnight deadline, the Italian government said it was sticking to its guns. In a statement released after a cabinet meeting, deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini said its deficit target [...]
This Budget balancing act was Hammond’s mission impossible October 30, 2018 As he stood up to deliver his Autumn Budget yesterday, the chancellor was to fulfil two promises which the Prime Minister had made at the Conservative party conference earlier this month: end austerity, while still reducing public debt as a share of GDP. Fulfilling these pledges will take time, and more details will be unveiled [...]
Talk of a US recession in 2020 is a little premature October 16, 2018 Several analysts have come out of the woodwork in the past few weeks predicting not just a US growth slowdown, but the start of a recession in 2020. These calls were amplified after a week of stock market volatility. Bond vigilantes are pointing to rising real yields (that have been adjusted for inflation), while bear [...]